We still need to make efforts. Greenhouse gas emissions in France started to rise again (+ 0.5%) in the 3rd quarter year-on-year, notably due to contributions from the building and transport sectors, Citepa announced this Friday. , the organization responsible for drawing up the French carbon footprint.
Over the first nine months of 2024, however, the trend remains downward, with a decline of 2.4%, excluding carbon sinks, compared to this same period in 2023. But the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions slows down. For comparison, last year over nine months, the decline was 6%. 2023 ended with a drop in emissions of 5.8% compared to 2022.
“Given the efforts of the last two years, we are not falling behind,” reacted Agnès Pannier-Runacher, the Minister of Ecological Transition, on RTL this Friday morning. The increase in the 3rd quarter “still leaves us on the right trajectory”, she said, judging that these figures “remind us that we must not let our guard down”.
The last year where emissions were increasing was in 2021, with an increase of 6.4% due to the post-Covid recovery. Without going that far, 2024 should logically be a less good year in terms of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
“The trend over 12 rolling months is currently -3.1% (moving year),” indicates Citepa, whose data remains provisional for the moment. And they do not include the absorption of CO2 by carbon sinks, such as forests and soils, which are highly degraded due to global warming and various pollution, but essential in achieving France’s climate objectives.
Emissions on the rise in buildings and transport
The slowdown in the decline in emissions over nine months comes from two sectors: construction and transport, whose emissions have started to rise again in recent months. Regarding transport, this increase is mainly due to an increase in road traffic emissions (+1.1% over the quarter). But it is especially the building sector which weighs down the balance sheet for the 3rd quarter, with an increase of 11.8%. This strong rebound comes from “the increase in emissions associated with the heating of residential and tertiary buildings in September 2024”.
The country is experiencing “a slowdown in the transition to electric cars, particularly in companies, which are not playing the game,” pointed out Agnès Pannier-Runacher on RTL this Friday morning. Furthermore, according to the minister, “we are seeing an increase in the installation of gas boilers and the use of fuel oil” while “we had had a significant rate of reduction in greenhouse gases in buildings with the renovation thermal and the change of fossil boilers”.
The energy production and industry sectors continue to contribute to the dynamic reduction of emissions in the 3rd quarter (-12.9%). On the good news side, domestic air transport, although less compared to international transport, saw its emissions reduced by 4.1%, amplifying the drop already observed in 2023 (-3.5%).
The decarbonization of electricity production continues, due to the reduced use of fossil fuels. The manufacturing industry also continues to reduce its GHGs, even if the pace slows: after -2.8% in the 2nd quarter, the decline is only 1.3% in the 3rd.
For agriculture, Citepa specifies that “only part of the changes in emissions from the sector” is estimated and that the “virtual stagnation of emissions (+ 0.3%)” over the first nine months “remains a partial overview”.
All sectors down in 2023
Citepa recalls that in 2023, all sectors had contributed to the drop in emissions. “This multifactorial dynamic must continue to maintain a decarbonization trajectory compatible with the objectives of the National Low-Carbon Strategy” (SNBC), underlines the organization.
The reduction trajectory to reach the new provisional target of 270 million tonnes (Mt) CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2030 excluding carbon sinks indicated in the SNBC 3 project implies a necessary reduction of 4.7% per year (i.e. – 16 Mt CO2e/year on average) between 2022 and 2030, indicates Citepa.
France, which must align with the European objective of -55% emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 and which aims for carbon neutrality in 2050, had failed to respect its first carbon budget (2015-2018) and had revised its ambitions downwards in 2019. The results of SNBC 2 should be drawn up in 2025.
