They made a lot of noise during the election of Donald Trump. They have since been banned…at least in theory. Predictive betting platforms like Polymarket are doing well, continuing to have hundreds of millions of dollars in volumes, and appear to be targeting an American audience. How to explain this phenomenon?
Predictive betting platforms are still active
Although they were banned by countries like France and the United States, predictive betting platforms are not dead. The largest of them, Polymarket, posted a volume of just under $1 billion for the month of December. How can we explain that these platforms continue to attract so many users?
The odds of different bets are regularly highlighted by meme pages on Instagram. Here during the Luigi Mangione affair, the man who assassinated the CEO of United Healthcare
Since the excitement of the American presidential election, these platforms have set up marketing strategies to circumvent bans. Instagram users will have noticed their favorite meme pages relaying numerous stories highlighting the odds of different bets.
???? What is a decentralized prediction market like Polymarket?
We were able to speak with the owner of one of these pages. The latter confirmed to us that he had shared a large number of publications to promote these bets, “ paid advertisements » :
I re-shared stories about them, for sure, and the ads were paid for. But I didn't bet myself. These were Kalshi and Polymarket, but mostly Kalshi.
Partnerships that began “ at the beginning of October » :
The week before the result, they asked for about 3 ads. So they really pushed it last week. I think they saw the momentum they had on their platforms, with a lot of punters.
Advertisements that reached an international audience with a high proportion of North Americans, since “ just over 30% [sur 70 000 followers, ndlr] of people who follow me are based in the United States. »
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A predominantly American audience
An effective strategy for these platforms. Today, Polymarket continues to record impressive numbers, $1 billion in volume and 200,000 active traders for the month of December, with betting largely focused on United States culture and politics.
What are they banking on? Sport seems to have taken precedence over political news, notably with the Superbowl, the final of the National Football League (NFL) championship. The bet on the winner of this competition has been open since July 10 and has accumulated 1.030 billion dollars in stakes.
We can clearly see that the public has remained largely American: almost no one is interested in the Superbowl outside the United States. A trend that can be found on the Kalshi platform. There, 6 of the 9 biggest open bets are on the United States.
The bets that bring together the most stakes on the Kalshi platform
???? Will predictive markets like Polymarket really become counter-powers?
Predictive betting has always needed a relay to exist. In previous centuries, they relied on the press. As the 4th power left them aside to only talk about scientific polls, predictive betting has reinvented itself in the age of the Internet.
In France, 34% of users use social networks to stay informed. A boon for predictive betting platforms, especially since it is difficult for the authorities to monitor what is happening on social networks.
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Cryptocurrency expert, Marc-Antoine began his journey in Web 3 alongside David Prinçay (current president of Binance France) in the French Cryptocurrency Club. Since then, it is by writing articles in the best-known crypto media in France that he has spread the good word. If you've read an article about crypto, there's a good chance you've read one of his articles. NFT, Blockchain, Web 3, DeFi, there is not a sector that is foreign to it. And don't ask him what the next coin to buy is: it's a maximalist Bitcoin (yes, no one is perfect).
Marc-Antoine Caen Poletti
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