How Israel is reshaping the Middle East

Israel wasted no time, after the fall of Bashar Al-Assad, to place its pawns in Syria. Over the past few days, Israel has repeatedly bombarded Syrian territory, carrying out more than 350 strikes against military installations in Damascus.

Israeli fighter jets and drones pounded air bases, arms and ammunition depots and factories producing weapons, including chemical weapons, in several regions of the country. Many warships were also sunk.

They demolished everything they could demolishsays Didier Leroy, researcher at the Royal Military School of Belgium, contacted in Brussels.

Israeli authorities said they ordered the attacks preemptively, to prevent weapons from falling into the wrong hands.

We must remember who these rebels are [qui ont pris le pouvoir en Syrie]underlines Kobi Michael, senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. They belong to branches of the Islamic State armed group and the Muslim Brotherhood, which want to eliminate the State of Israel.

Even if their priority at the moment is the stabilization of Syria, Israel cannot run the risk of allowing the Islamists of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTC) or whoever will lead the country, to build up a military arsenal on its borders, explains Mr. Michael.

HTC military chief Ahmed Al-Charaa [aussi connu sous son nom de guerre Abou Mohammed Al-Joulani]called on the international community to intervene to put an end to Israeli military attacks, which he called of unfair. He also assured, in an interview with Western media, that Syria would not constitute a base for regional or international problems.

Israeli bombings are very difficult to justify under international law, explains Fannie Lafontaine, professor of international law at Laval University.

The Charter of the United Nations prohibits a state from using force against another unless it has received authorization from the Security Council or uses self-defense to respond, temporarily, to an aggression targeting its territory , she emphasizes.

Israel could use this second argument, invoking the possibility of possible aggression on the part of the new Syrian government or armed groups in the territory, notes Ms. Lafontaine. But, for this to be accepted, the attack must have already occurred or it must be imminent.

We are really using force in a very, very preventive way, in advance of a possible threat coming from sources that are not yet clear. By all legal interpretations of the right to defense, this is clearly exaggerated.

Occupation of the Syrian Golan

In addition to the bombings, the Israeli army on December 8 seized a buffer zone in the Golan Heights between Israel and Syria, previously occupied in part by Syrian troops, who fled during the collapse of the regime.

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The occupation of the Golan Heights, which Israel took from Syria during the Six-Day War in 1967, is already contested. Israel annexed it in 1981, but only the United States recognized it as Israeli territory. The rest of the international community considers this an illegal occupation.

On December 9, Israeli troops took control of an additional area of ​​approximately 400 km2 in Syrian territory, in which peacekeepers patrol. They also took up positions on Mount Hermon, the highest point in Syria.

At a press conference held at the summit of the mountain, Benjamin Netanyahu maintained that Israeli forces would remain in the buffer zone until another arrangement was put in place. to guarantee the security of Israel .

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It is not an occupation at all, but rather a temporary control of strategic sitesfor his part supports Kobi Michael, echoing the comments of the Israeli government.

Once the situation in Syria stabilizes, we will be able to reach a reliable agreement with the Syrian regimehe specifies.

We do not occupy the territory. We have no territorial claims or aspirations and we are only here for security reasons.

Will Israel really withdraw when the situation in Syria has stabilized?

We are entitled to ask ourselves the question, notes Didier Leroy. From a strategic and military point of view, this would be extremely stupid [pour Israël] to abandon the summit of Mount Hermon, for example. It could be a bargaining chip with the future authorities in Damascus, but I wouldn't really expect to see Israel withdraw from that area.

At the same time, Israel announced a plan to double its population in the Syrian Golan, where 31,000 Israeli settlers already live alongside some 24,000 Syrian Druze. Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates condemned Israel's decision, described as a deliberate effort to expand occupation.

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Before the Security Council of theHIMOn December 17, the special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, called on Israel to stop its operations. Israel must stop all settlement activity in the occupied Syrian Golan, which is illegal, Pedersen said. Attacks on territorial integrity [de la Syrie] must stop.

Next target: Iran

The Israeli armed forces make no secret of it: their next target is Iran. According to what was reported The Times of Israël On December 12, they prepared to strike Iranian nuclear facilities.

After destroying the Syrian defenses, the Israeli Air Force has total superiority in the region. This provides a window of opportunity, almost a barrier-free highway to Iranunderlines Didier Leroy.

A situation that Israel did not seek and which is the direct result of the attacks of October 7, notes Pascal Ausseur, director general of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies (FMES), in Toulon.

Rather, the Israeli objective was to broaden and deepen the Abraham Accords, in order to normalize relations with its Arab neighbors. The Hamas attacks changed the situation. Israel felt isolated and vulnerable in the face of the existential threat posed to it by Iran. The two Iranian attacks with ballistic missiles, capable of carrying nuclear charges, particularly shook Israel, believes Mr. Ausseur.

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If Israel did not seek this confrontation, it intends to take advantage of the situation to redesign the Middle East, underlines Kobi Michael.

The fundamental objective of Israeli strategy after the deadly attack of October 7 is to change the entire regional system. We can no longer try to adjust to our environment, as we did in the past.

To change the entire regional system, you must face the center of gravity of this system: Iran. Iran is the head of the octopus.

However, to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities, some of which are hidden deep underground, Israel depends on American military aid, notes Pascal Ausseur.

Israelis destroyed Iranian air defense systems [lors des frappes en octobre]so they can enter the country more easily and bomb a certain number of sites, explains Mr. Ausseur. It's doable. But they won't break the nuclear system. To be decisive, the Americans must strike with them.

However, American support for a similar operation is far from certain, believes the researcher. Joe Biden only has a few days left in the White House and the new president, Donald Trump, would tend to not want to engage in risky conflicts.

Furthermore, the Israeli government itself is divided between those who want to take advantage of Iran's current weakness and those who believe that it should focus on stabilizing the situation in Gaza and southern Lebanon, so that the armed forces are already stretched to the maximum.

What is clear is that military logic prevailed over a political and diplomatic approach, notes Didier Leroy. For now, Israel is experiencing its little unipolar moment and trying to push its tactical victories even furtherhe emphasizes.

With information from the Associated Press