On December 2, Sébastien Lecornu, Minister of the Armed Forces who has not yet resigned, sounded the alarm on his X account (formerly Twitter). To try to influence the vote of the deputies until the last moment, and thus avoid censorship from the Barnier government, the minister wrote: “While the world is rearming and threats are accumulating, our armies and our industrialists need stability, visibility, and therefore confidence. The opposite would happen if a motion of censure against the budget of France”.
Concrete consequences
With an increase in spending of 3.3 billion euros compared to the year 2024, the defense budget was in fact the one which was expected to increase the most in 2025.
Due to lack of budget, the armies are therefore those who are losing the most at the moment. Sébastien Lecornu made no secret of it at the very beginning of the month, saying: “Censorship would have very concrete consequences for our armies, but also more broadly for our French defense industrialists: more than 200,000 jobs in more than 4,000 companies throughout our territories. For our soldiers, this would mean the immediate impossibility of upgrading their balance And the inability to recruit the 700 additional staff planned for our security model, the inability to finance the planned modernization efforts, such as. the impossibility of launching the order for our future aircraft carrier, and therefore of accumulating a delay potentially making it impossible to join when the Charles de Gaulle leaves active service”.
Oddly enough, defense was not mentioned among the sectors most affected by the censorship of Michel Barnier's government. Until a very recent post from Yannick Chenevard, deputy for the 1st constituency of Var. Since his open heart operation on November 20, the Var parliamentarian had been discreet. But on the occasion of his release from hospital on Thursday, December 19, proof that his convalescence is going well, the one who is a member of the Defense and Armed Forces Commission broke his silence by posting a long message on his LinkedIn account.
The “censors” will have to explain themselves
Yannick Chenevard, who insists on the loss of 3.3 billion euros for the armies in 2025, does not hide his concern. The photo accompanying his message is most telling: we see the blurred silhouette of the new generation aircraft carrier with a question mark.
For the elected official, the order of the PANG in the first half of 2025 is clearly called into question. “I have no doubt that the deputies who voted for censure will explain to manufacturers, to shipyards, to the territories concerned that several months of delay in the construction of a 75,000-ton ship is not very serious and that after all the French Navy can wait.”he slips.
Before also mentioning the significant impact in the Var: “273.3 million euros of investments suspended, such as several dozen positions and numerous projects to support soldiers and their families”.
Yannick Chenevard is not the only one to measure the consequences of the absence of a budget for 2025. Both historian and economist, Nicolas Baverez, also a member of the Montaigne Institute, is surprised: “There is a form of paradox in the fact that defense is not cited among the sectors affected by the Barnier government's censorship even though it is the most impacted by the absence of a budget”.
The worst moment
In his eyes, the absence of a budget for 2025, “pivotal year of the military programming law”is all the more serious as the appropriations initially planned covered “three very important points: the modernization of deterrence; the launch of major arms programs (including the new generation aircraft carrier); finally, the financing of innovation. Particularly in the areas of artificial intelligence, cyber, or even intelligence”.
And this lack of budget, which risks impacting our defense industrial and technological base, to the extent that “the State is the main client”, intervenes “at the worst time”. Nicolas Baverez explains: “Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia should begin in 2025. France is the leading military power in the European Union. However, if it does not have a budget, it will have difficulty ensuring the security guarantees given to Ukraine”.
We are a long way from the war economy loudly demanded by President Macron.
