Okay, Justin Trudeau just had a huge brain cramp while trying to knock down his minister Chrystia Freeland. It could be fatal to him.
Published at 7:00 a.m.
Okay, the GST holiday and $250 checks are “expensive political gimmicks,” in Ms.me Freeland. (Even if for checks, Doug Ford and François Legault used the same strategy before their elections.)
Okay, Justin Trudeau has been very unpopular for two years, the electorate holds him responsible for high inflation (like all the leaders of the G7 countries).
Okay, the Liberal government has been overspending in general, especially after the pandemic ended.
Okay, he increased the number of civil servants while federal services to the population experienced their share of problems.
But at a time when the Trudeau government is visibly on its last legs, let’s take a step back to take an initial assessment of its nine years in power.
If you are progressive or center left, the Trudeau government’s record is quite good. Without being perfect — what government is?
As memory is a faculty that forgets (quickly), particularly in politics, here is also a series of good moves from the Trudeau government.
Tax cuts for the middle class, decline in inequalities
When it came to power in 2015, the Trudeau government prioritized tax cuts for the middle class. The tax rate increased from 22% to 20.5% for the income bracket of $45,000 to $90,500. For a middle-class taxpayer, that meant a tax cut of $330 per year in 2016. In return, the federal government raised taxes on wealthier taxpayers, increasing the tax rate from 29% to 33%. for the income bracket above $200,000.
After-tax economic inequality declined in Canada during the Trudeau years. They had decreased under Stephen Harper, but very slightly (see graph).
Currently, economic inequality is slightly lower in Canada than the average for OECD countries1.
Reduction in child poverty
This is one of the Trudeau government’s greatest legacies: its family allowance program, more generous than the Harper government’s benefits for less well-off parents, lifted many families out of poverty. The poverty rate fell significantly between 2015 and 2020. For the entire population, it decreased from 14.5% to 8.1%. In children and adolescents, it melted by half2.
Managing the pandemic
During the pandemic, Ottawa came to the economy’s aid with generous but essential programs. Even if the CERB lasted a little too long, and even if the Auditor General criticized certain aspects of this program. The federal government had a good vaccine procurement strategy. Although contested, his decision to use Emergency Measures Act to end the occupation of downtown Ottawa finally received the approval of the Rouleau commission.
Dealing with Donald Trump
For four years, the Trudeau government had to manage the administration of Donald Trump. In 2018, it concluded a new free trade agreement with the United States and Mexico. The agreement was satisfactory in the circumstances. The government limited the damage.
A price on pollution
The vast majority of economists believe that pricing carbon is the best way to fight climate change3. In 2018, the Trudeau government introduced a price on pollution across the country. In Quebec, we already have the carbon market, so federal pricing does not apply. Among the two federal parties generally hopeful of forming government (the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party), only the Liberals are in favor of carbon pricing. Canada is not doing enough to fight climate change, but the Trudeau government’s plan, ambitious for an oil-producing country, appears to be starting to work. According to estimates from the Climate Institute of Canada, Canada has reduced its CO emissions2 by 1% between 2022 and 2023.
Investing in housing
The Trudeau government has increased federal investments in social and affordable housing. In Quebec, the federal government paid 72% of the public bill for social and affordable housing in 2023-2024 (the provincial paid 28% of the bill). 10 years ago, Harper government programs paid 61% of the public bill4.
There for public transport
Under Mr. Trudeau, the federal government has prioritized infrastructure investments in public transportation, with the aim of reducing our CO emissions.2. The federal government was there for all major public transport projects in Quebec: REM and extension of the blue line in Montreal, tramway in Quebec.
A national child care program
The Trudeau government took inspiration from Quebec to finance a low-cost daycare program for parents across the country. (Problem: it did not find the government revenues to finance this significant recurring expense.) As the CPE network already exists in Quebec, the federal government unconditionally compensated the Quebec government at the rate of 6 billion over five years.
An enviable credit score
The Trudeau government has been a spendthrift. Despite everything, the Government of Canada’s finances are in good shape. The Government of Canada is one of the two G7 countries, with Germany, that have the lowest budget deficit (as a percentage of its GDP). Canada also has the best credit rating, AAA, from two of the three rating agencies. Among the G7 countries, only Germany has such a good credit rating5.
In the 2015, 2019 and 2021 elections, the Liberal Party of Canada, led by Justin Trudeau, won the most seats and obtained the most votes in Quebec.
Obviously, many Quebecers recognized themselves in the values embodied by the current Prime Minister.
You don’t win three federal elections in Quebec by luck.
1. Consult the “Review of taxation in Quebec — 2024 Edition” from the Research Chair in Taxation and Public Finance
2. Consult data from Statistics Canada
3. Read an article published on the - website
4. Read the column “Affordable housing: surprise, the federal government pays 72% of the bill in Quebec! »
5. Consult the Government of Canada’s 2024 economic statement (pages 51 and 52)
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