Less than three months later in the nomination, the Barnier government is undoubtedly already living its last hours. Two motions of censure were filed, by the left and the extreme right, after the use of article 49.3 of the Constitution to pass the draft Social Security budget to the National Assembly. The deputies will debate then vote on these motions of censure from 4 p.m. this Wednesday.
A government confined to current affairs
If Michel Barnier's government falls, the Prime Minister will be considered resigned. His government will then be responsible for manage only day-to-day affairsuntil his successor is appointed by Emmanuel Macron. This scenario only happened once under the Fifth Republic, in 1962 with the government of Georges Pompidou.
No dissolution possible
In 1962, General de Gaulle, President of the Republic, decided to dissolve the National Assembly after the fall of the Pompidou government. Legislative elections then took place, which made it possible to obtain a new balance of power in the Assembly: the Gaullists had won the legislative elections, allowing Georges Pompidou to be confirmed in his post.
Emmanuel Macron will not be able to opt for this strategy because there must be a period of at least one year between two dissolutions. Or, the head of state dissolved the Assembly less than six months ago. He will therefore have to appoint a new Prime Minister, responsible for forming a government, without a majority in the Assembly since it is currently divided into three groups: left, center-right and far-right. The future government will therefore be under the permanent threat of overthrow.
- Motion of censure: return to October 1962, when the Pompidou government was overthrown (Franceinfo 11 p.m. news, December 3, 2024)
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The return of the puzzle to appoint a new Prime Minister
In this context, several options offered to the president. Rename Michel Barnier? Another personality at the head of the same fragile team between the center and the right? Or turn to the former socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve, whom he hesitated to appoint in September? Name Jordan Bardella? The president of the National Rally himself said during the June legislative elections that he only wanted to govern with a majority. Asked about BFMTV Monday, RN deputy Julien Odoul confirmed it: govern “with an RN majority, yes” more “so not now.”
Emmanuel Macron can also appoint a technical government or get a non-censorship agreement between several training courses. This last option is favored by the socialists, who plan to negotiate a non-censorship agreement with the central bloc in the Assembly so that the left can govern. “I remind you that we did not win the elections, we need 290 deputies to win the elections, we are missing 100, so by definition, the agreements that we are going to make are not agreements that will take up 100% of our vision of the economy, society or public services But we must save the furniture.“, PS MP Philippe Brun explained on franceinfo. The socialists asked Monday evening for the designation “of a Prime Minister sharing the values of the left on the priority projects of the New Popular Front“.
Unacceptable for the rebels, who are pushing for the appointment of a Prime Minister from the New Popular Front. Technical government, non-censorship agreement, “if we start to propose options, different solutions (…) we can clearly see that we are making Mr. Macron’s job easier not to appoint a left-wing government”insisted La France insoumise MP Éric Coquerel, calling on the socialists to unite. The head of the LFI group in the Assembly Mathilde Panot warned that“a non-censorship agreement“, which would be “in fact, a form of government alliance with the Macronists“, was unthinkable.
Call for the resignation of Emmanuel Macron
Some, notably among the Insoumis, go so far as to ask the resignation of Emmanuel Macron. “So that we can return to the people, to their vote, to their decision, the president must resign”for example launched Jean-Luc Mélenchon on his social networks Monday evening.
For her part, if she swears not to officially demand the departure of Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen outlines it: “When there is a serious political crisis, the President of the Republic has three possibilities, reshuffle, dissolution and resignation.” Taking care to remember that the first two have already been purged.
“It’s getting very complicated.“, political scientist Bruno Cautres told AFP. “From a point of view of democratic legitimacy, it [Emmanuel Macron] no longer has the slightest margin of maneuver to make mistakes again: if he appoints a Prime Minister who is also censored, or if he dissolves next summer and loses the elections again, I don't see how he can maintain itself.”
