the three unknowns in the event of a vote by the National Assembly

POLITICS – The nightmare scenario seems to be coming true for Michel Barnier. The RN announced this Monday, December 2 that it will vote on the motion of censure tabled by the left, after the use of article 49-3 on the Social Security budget. You don't need to have studied high school to understand what happens next: the addition of the left-wing deputies who sit in the NFP groups and those of the RN is enough to exceed the threshold of 288 votes necessary to bring about the fall of the government.

Thus, barring an improbable turnaround, the Savoyard will be invited to leave Matignon this Wednesday, December 4 in the evening. Normally, the resignation of a Prime Minister (desired by a head of state or following an electoral defeat) does not cause an earthquake that is felt outside the political arena. But normal time no longer exists since the dissolution which gave rise to a fragmented Assembly.

Intervening in the middle of a budget review, the probable censorship of the head of government raises several urgent questions; relating to the very functioning of the country. How will the public authorities be able to maneuver without Parliament deciding on a Budget? Who to replace Michel Barnier and resolve an eminently complex political situation? How will the markets react after this new demonstration of instability born from a political crisis which continues to worsen? So many questions to which HuffPost try to answer below.

How to provide France with a budget?

Let's first look at the budgetary issues. If the government is overthrown, the text on the financing of Social Security will be considered rejected and the examination of the PLF (State Finance bill) will stop dead in its tracks. Therefore, it seems impossible for a new Prime Minister to table a budget and have it voted on before December 31.

On the other hand, several paths exist to avoid the catastrophe agitated by Michel Barnier's supporters for several days. Most credible option: the new government, or the resigning team, can file a “ special law » which allows, according to article 45 of the law which governs budgetary debates, to renew the 2024 budget while awaiting the validation of a new roadmap in accordance with the rules of the art. Under these conditions, we imagine that the left and the far right will validate this emergency text which will, if necessary, allow the continuity of State revenues and expenditures on January 1, 2025. And beyond this already perilous scenario , two other (steep) paths would allow the executive to act.

The resigning government could thus use an article of the Constitution which authorizes it to enforce its budget by ordinance if Parliament has not decided within the allotted time frame. But specialists are divided on this question: the adoption of a motion of censure could actually mean that Parliament has spoken out, in this case against. Finally, the last option is undoubtedly the most eruptive: in theory, Emmanuel Macron could resort to article 16 of the Constitution (that of “full powers”) to impose its budgetary decisions by decree.

Which Prime Minister after Barnier?

In any case, if Michel Barnier is overthrown by one of the motions of censure, a successor will have to be found. And, unless it is renamed as Macronist deputies are demanding, the equation seems difficult. The famous five-legged sheep sought by the President of the Republic during the summer (that is to say a profile which presents all the qualities, certain of not being overthrown at the first motion of censure) will not exist more this winter.

First scenario: recognize that the New Popular Front, the bloc that came first in the legislative elections, has the legitimacy to govern. In this case, LFI pleads for Lucie Castets to be called to Matignon, in accordance with the July agreement. Except that things are stuck at the PS, to the point that Olivier Faure dodges the question when it is asked of him and he has not clearly reiterated whether he still supports it. Another name that stands out, although without unanimous approval: Bernard Cazeneuve. The former Prime Minister could bridge the gap between part of the left and the macronie, or even attract certain LR deputies. A viable solution? Emmanuel Macron explained this summer that he did not want his economic policy to be fundamentally called into question. However, Cazeneuve supported the repeal of the pension reform.

So to the right? A David Lisnard or a Xavier Bertrand would be exposed to the same sentence as Michel Barnier, censored by the left and the RN. As for the appointment of a purely Macronist Prime Minister (Sébastien Lecornu or Gérald Darmanin are among them), he would not be able to broaden the “common base” which has failed Michel Barnier several times. In the meantime, Michel Barnier will manage day-to-day affairs.

How will the financial markets react?

Enough to avoid the “storm” that he said he feared just a week ago? France will have a budget, civil servants will not stop being paid as could be the case with a shutdown in the United States. Does this mean that there will be no financial consequences for France? It would be imprudent to quickly answer “yes” to this question and you only have to see the reaction of the markets this Monday to be convinced. Weighed down by the news from France, the euro plunged against the dollar and in Paris, the price of French banks saw a sharp drop in the afternoon.

Another illustration, the gap between the borrowing interest rates of France and Germany. This increased sharply just after Michel Barnier's 49-3 to reach a level not seen since 2012. And the amplitude of movements during the day was the same as at the time of the dissolution, in June. “It’s a sign of crisis,” assures Nicolas Forest, investment manager at the Candriam company, interviewed by AFP.

As a result, France is now borrowing at rates comparable to those of Greece and a very smart one who can announce a return to normal in the coming days.

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