A stroke of strength and then leaves? The future of Michel Barnier, appointed prime minister by Emmanuel Macron on September 5, will be written this Monday, December 2 at the National Assembly. At 3 p.m. sharp, the 73-year-old former European commissioner will take the podium to announce, presumably, as he talks about it these days, that he is using article 49.3 of the Constitution to have the social security financing bill (PLFSS).
Faced with this desire to circumvent Parliament, a true trademark of Macronist power, the left has already made it known that it will immediately table a motion of censure to overthrow the government, revolted by this text of “regression on health policy” denounced by André Chassaigne, communist deputy and president of the GDR group, as well as by Michel Barnier's denial of democracy.
Discussed and voted on this Wednesday, December 4, the motion of censure could end its experience in Matignon if the National Rally (RN) mixes its voices with those of the New Popular Front (NFP), as Marine Le Pen has been threatening to do for several days . “This motion of censure is essential! » ton Sandrine Rousseau, environmentalist deputy from Paris and co-rapporteur of the PLFSS.
A wasted “compromise” work
The anger of the left is all the stronger as its deputies played the parliamentary game, with all the forces of the republican arc, so that a “compromise text that meets the challenges” can see the light of day, assures the parliamentarian. And this in line with Michel Barnier's general policy declaration of 1is October calling on parliamentarians to show their sense of “responsibilities” a you ” compromise “ : “We don’t compromise ourselves when we make a compromise, especially if it’s dynamic. »
The NFP's goodwill for a compromise PLFSS initially yielded results. According to the work of the Social Affairs Committee, then that of Finance, and finally the examination of the text at first reading in the National Assembly, the left could boast of having managed to have 20 billion additional revenues adopted. by taxes on sugary drinks, tobacco, alcohol, gambling, but also and above all on capital gains on the sale of shares, the increase in the CSG on capital income, profits of the pharmaceutical industry and dividends, among others.
“We worked very well, I found intelligent people who were able to get involved”concedes Yannick Neuder, LR deputy for Isère and general rapporteur of the PLFSS. This close friend of Laurent Wauquiez even admits to having sometimes found it easier to move forward with Sandrine Rousseau and Louis Boyard (FI), his co-rapporteurs, than with certain Macronists “who do not mourn their former absolute majority as they descend the steps of power one by one”. “In committee, with the left, we had many agreements, he indicates. As on the desire to protect our health sovereignty by strengthening the Monetary and Financial Code to make it possible to block the sale of a subsidiary, to avoid losing strategic areas, like Doliprane for example. »
Progress reduced to a trickle by the Senate and its right-wing majority, which rewrote the text to bring it closer to the government's initial intentions, then by the Joint Joint Commission (CMP), composed largely of parliamentarians from the “common base”. “. Only a compromise on pensions was found to index them to half of inflation from 1is January (+ 0.8%), with an additional amount from January 1is July for retirees below 1,500 euros gross.
A tax on sodas was retained, supported by the right and the left. The senatorial proposal providing for seven hours of work without remuneration for active people to bring in 2.5 billion, according to LR and Renaissance, has, for its part, been deleted. A relief which, however, is not enough for the left, which deplores that the reduction in exemptions from employer contributions, initially set by the government at 4 billion in efforts for businesses, was reduced to 1.6 billion under pressure from the group EPR, chaired by Gabriel Attal. The compromise proposed by the NFP, at 3 billion, was ignored.
An inevitable censorship for the left
“The final version of the text was written in advancealso deplores Arthur Delaporte, socialist deputy for Calvados and member of the Social Affairs committee. Rather than seeking to expand, the presidential camp only wanted to negotiate with itself. The common base program is not democracy, it is: macronism, only macronism! »
Received by Michel Barnier last week, he attempted to submit to the Prime Minister some compromise ideas inspired by the work of the entire left: maintaining the indexation of all retirement pensions to inflation, increasing the budget for public hospital, elimination of the reduction in reimbursement rates for medical consultations and medicines, subjection to social contributions of salary supplements (sharing, profit-sharing, dividends) for the 20% of wealthiest households, etc.
These measures intended to preserve a level of Social Security expenditure for an amount of 8.06 billion euros while providing for new revenue, “for a minimum amount of 8.14 billion euros compared to the initial project”specifies the socialist. In vain.
“I felt that he received us only out of politenesshe confides. He told us that he had seen our amendments and that he found some of them interesting. Before adding that we had to understand this, that he had no room for maneuver because his base was determined not to give in on anything. » A situation which, in the opinion of all NFP groups, makes censorship inevitable.
“There will be a motion of censure and we will vote for it”says André Chassaigne. Same story for rebellious France in the voice of Mathilde Panot, leader of the group: “This is democratic violence that we cannot accept. It will be a motion of censure which will be tabled by the entire New Popular Front and each deputy will take their responsibilities. We have a Prime Minister on borrowed time. »
The blackmail of the RN
For Michel Barnier and his government to be overthrown, the vote on the motion of censure tabled by the left by a majority of deputies is necessary. The position of the “common base” forces (EPR, Modem, Horizons, DR) is known; they will try to save soldier Barnier as best they can. It remains to be determined what the 124 related RN deputies and their 16 Ciottist allies will do.
In recent days, Marine Le Pen has widely announced her intentions to vote for censorship if certain of her demands are not met. To the point of pushing Michel Barnier, Thursday, November 28, to make a series of concessions to convince her to hold back her troops and thus save her skin. Among them, the suspension of the planned increase in the price of electricity or others responding to the obsessions of the RN, such as the reduction in the basket of care covered by state medical aid (AME) for undocumented immigrants and the announcement of a future reform to “avoid abuse and misappropriation”.
Enough to avoid censorship? “Mr Barnier announced a reduction in the AME of 100 million out of 1.2 billion euros. Is this serious? » pretended to wonder, this Sunday, in the columns of the Tribunethe former frontist candidate in the presidential election to put more pressure on the head of government. And to continue: “Censorship is not inevitable. It is enough for Mr. Barnier to agree to negotiate. He comes from a political family which has 47 deputies. Normally, this should lead to discussion! He does not wish to do so, it is he who makes the decision to trigger censorship. » A way to remind him of a simple rule. If he wants to stay in place, he must obey his master: the extreme right. And definitely don't bite his hand.
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