The Le Pen party, leading in 33 constituencies on Sunday evening in the first round, continues its progress in the region. The left can still intervene. Renaissance is much less so. We take stock of the political situation in this period between the two rounds.
Will the map of Occitanie, on Sunday evening, resemble a painting by Soulages? The uniform black of the National Rally and its allies, with a few nuances here and there? In broad strokes, this is what the first round of these legislative elections promises, which saw the RN or the LR-RN come out on top in 33 of the 49 constituencies in the region, a result to which the former Languedoc-Roussillon particularly contributed, with 20 constituencies out of 23 which carried the representatives of the Le Pen party or Éric Ciotti in the lead. A tsunami rather than a wave? The die is not completely cast.
1- Can the RN suffer from withdrawals?
Two deputies in 2017. Seventeen in 2022 (including 13 in Languedoc-Roussillon). Possibly… 35, two years later, given the number of constituencies where the “LRN” are still in the race, in the worst-case scenario for their opponents. The far right has the opportunity to continue its expansion in Occitanie, particularly in the east where a grand slam is possible in the Gard, after the Aude and the Pyrénées-Orientales in 2022. Sylvie Josserand, recently elected as a Member of the European Parliament, and the Ciottiste Alexandre Allegret-Pillot can complete the RN collection, even in the resistant Cévennes.
The enthusiasm of the regional executives must have been somewhat dampened this Monday, however, with the announcement of several withdrawals. In the thirty possible three-way races on Sunday evening, at least twelve that appeared favorable to the RN could turn into a tricky duel if the Republican front still works, particularly in Hérault (3rd, 4th and 9th) and in Aveyron (2nd). This could still leave between 25 and 30 RN and LR-RN deputies. Minimum.
2- The left resists… especially in Midi-Pyrénées
If Montpellier has strengthened the rebellious Nathalie Oziol, that four constituencies of Hérault can still be saved by the game of withdrawals – and the strong electoral weight of the city-center -, that Lozère seems set to follow the course of its history and also swing in the legislative elections, this first round has shown that it is the former Midi-Pyrénées that remains the pocket of resistance of the regional left. It came out on top in eleven constituencies, a result that it should consolidate in the second round, or even improve, particularly in Haute-Garonne or in the Hautes-Pyrénées. A duel will be symbolic, the one that will oppose in the 1st constituency of Haute-Garonne the mayor of Montauban “LRN” Brigitte Barèges to the PS deputy Valérie Rabault. It will say a lot about the balance of power that is emerging in the region.
3- The erasure of Macronie
In 2017, the party created by and for Emmanuel Macron had (almost) won a clean sweep in the region with 34 seats won on the momentum of the presidential election. Seven years later, the landscape emerging in Occitanie reflects the President’s influence: deserted. On the evening of the first round, Renaissance and its allies were almost wiped off the map of Languedoc-Roussillon, after the withdrawals of Colson and Baume in Gard, and those of Vignal, Cristol and Eliaou in Hérault. And Minister Patricia Miralles, even if she holds on to the 1st constituency of Hérault, has no chance of creating a surprise. In the Midi-Pyrénées region, the presidential party should be able to save the seat of Stéphane Mazars, in a favorable runoff in the 1st constituency of Aveyron, and can still hope to turn the tide in the three-way races where its candidates came in 2nd, thanks to a withdrawal. This is the case in Haute-Garonne (2nd and 3rd), in Aveyron (3rd), in Tarn (1st) and in Gers (1st). However, this is very little for a party that was hegemonic not long ago. Moreover, where traditional parties like the PS or LR could recover from a national defeat, thanks to their positions in local authorities and in large or small towns, Renaissance today has too few local elected representatives to hope to bounce back. The end of a Macronist cycle also on a regional scale.
4- A page that turns?
It is not only the Macronist page that is turning with these legislative elections. This first round in the region was marked by two earthquakes, one in Lozère, the other in Béziers.
In the smallest department in France, the outgoing MP elected since 2002, Pierre Morel-à-l’Huissier, came in 3rd place (24.04%), far behind the PS president of the Department Sophie Pantel (35.18%) and the RN Luc-Etienne Gousseau (33.91%). If the socialist is not certain of avoiding a historic victory for the far right as the gap is so small (549 votes) – even if she can benefit from the precious transfer of votes from Michel Guiral (6.04%) – for Pierre Morel-à-l’Huissier, who had already narrowly avoided criminal court in 2022, the lease at the National Assembly can only end on Sunday.
In Béziers, for the first time, upset by the numerous media-political U-turns of Robert Ménard whom it had helped to conquer the city in 2014, the RN had decided to present a candidate against Emmanuelle Ménard. Banco. In any case, the outgoing deputy is in an unfavorable ballot, with 14 points behind Julien Gabarron.
However, there is no indication that a defeat on Sunday would definitively mark the end of the political careers of Pierre Morel-à-l’Huissier and Emmanuelle Ménard. Who could have predicted, after 2017, that Fanny Dombre-Coste and Jean-Louis Roumégas, swept away in Hérault by the Macron wave, would be able to come back seven years later?
