An extraordinary election. “It’s an extraordinary election”comments Dominique Breillat, “All camps were surprised, including the presidential camp. » With a reduced campaign and a low number of candidates “half as much as two years ago”.
A significant participation. With 65.8% in France and 69.64% in Vienne, participation is “much stronger” than in the last elections. “We have to go back to 1978 or 1986 to see higher participations. » Also note a record of more than two million proxies.
Triangulars galore. As a result of this increased participation, an increase in the possibilities of triangulars: four in Vienne (after withdrawals only two). “In the former Poitou-Charentes, there are twelve possible out of fifteen constituencies. »
“A divide between the rural world and the cities”
A very strong push from the RN. Present everywhere, the RN finds itself in a favorable position in the 3e and the 4e. “There is a very significant divide between the rural world, in favor of the RN, and that of the cities, which resist. One of the motivations is the feeling of forgetting. » However, and due to withdrawals ” without ambiguity “ Yves Trousselle in the fourth and Gisèle Jean in the third, Dominique Breillat analyzes this second round as very open. « Wait and see. »
Leavers who resist. The wave of disengagement seems to be having less of an impact in Vienne than elsewhere. “We are not here with pure Macronists with a Sacha Houlié from the left and two deputies, Turquois and Lecamp, from the MoDem.” A salutary distancing. “It’s Macron who arouses the hostility, it’s not even Attal. »
The five-year term in question. Dominique Breillat sees this situation as a consequence of the transition to the five-year term in 2002. “With the seven-year term and legislative elections every five years, there was a democratic breathing space. That is no longer the case today, and voters have found this breathing space with the European elections.” And the consequences we know.
An effect of the non-accumulation of mandates. We vote for the RN because of the label and not the candidates, “as we did for the Macronists in 2017” recalls Dominique Breillat. He sees this as an effect of the non-cumulative nature of mandates. “In the past, the mayors of Poitiers were MPs, Vertadier, Santrot, Claeys. This is no longer possible and it is less strong, less integrated personalities that are emerging. In this respect, Lecamp and Saint-Pé are somewhat exceptions.”
Voice reports. Like Sacha Houlié, Lisa Belluco appears, according to Dominique Breillat, to be in a good position with Aurélien Tricot’s reserves of votes. “His voters will not go to the RN but some will perhaps go fishing. »
The next elections in sight. The second round next Sunday will result in future elections, presidential in 2027 and, above all, municipal in 2026. “Especially for Sacha Houlié.” What will he do in 2026, if he is defeated or elected on Sunday? As there were hints of past elections in some candidates during the first round, there will be lessons to be learned for the upcoming elections starting this Sunday.
An after to negotiate. On July 8, 2024, everything will depend on the majority obtained or not by the National Rally. “But it will be a blessed time for constitutional law specialists.”jokes Dominique Breillat. He predicts many discussions on these subjects and a strengthened role for the Constitutional Council and the Senate. “without whom no constitutional revision can be made”.
