The conclusion is clear. In the nine constituencies of Moselle, after the first round of legislative electionsSunday June 30, all candidates labeled National Rally are either in a favorable ballot or directly re-elected. “It’s an impressive wave at the national level, which is reinforced in the Grand Est and particularly in Moselle”explains François Laval, director of Sciences Po Nancy, guest of France Bleu Lorraine. “This is the result of the European election, and we see in the figures that they gained a few more points during these legislative elections.”
With his announcement of dissolution of the National Assembly, “The President of the Republic has extended a helping hand to the National Rally”. “He gave the idea that the RN could govern and therefore we have voters who did not vote for the National Front, but who consider that there is no longer an extreme right”he says. “For them it is the real uninhibited right, the national right which is returning to power, which explains this surge in participation.”
“For the president, it was a bold bet but a crazy bet”says François Laval. “This bet has failed since even a large part of his ministers will be defeated. It will be a marshal without troops facing the National Rally. There was a rejection of the person of Emmanuel Macron and therefore of his majority. The Macronists were attacked as much by the National Rally as by the left bloc. Moreover, yesterday evening, we no longer spoke of Emmanuel Macron, even if the presidential party made almost 20%.”
“The voter is disoriented”
But the National Rally wave does not affect all of Lorraine evenly. “We can clearly see the gap between Moselle and Meurthe-et-Moselle, which still remains on the left since it should have three socialist deputies out of six”continues the political scientist. “Moselle is an old Gaullist, right-wing land. With the collapse of the Republicans, right-wing voters went to the National Rally, attracted by a very promising discourse on purchasing power. That is why the transfer of votes to Renaissance candidates is not guaranteed.”
Moreover, the director of Sciences Po Nancy does not believe in the idea of a new “republican front”. “Two years ago, it didn’t work. The National Rally had 89 deputies while the polls projected 20 to 30. For the voter, what do we understand when we talk about the Republican arc?” asks François Laval. “When we say that we are going to bring Renaissance votes for rebellious France when things have been very violent in the National Assembly for two years, the voter is confused and that will not push him to vote.”
