In Lyon and the Metropolis, the left could obtain more deputies than in 2022. The presidential majority is declining when the RN should have one of its candidates elected. A first since 1986.
Increasing participation
The French have never mobilized so much for a legislative election in nearly 50 years. Participation regularly exceeded 70% in many constituencies of the Rhône: 74% in the 1st, 75% in the 5th, 71% in the 9th. In the 7th where abstention is often high, 61% of registered voters turned out this Sunday, June 30.
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The number of proxies in particular had given an indication for three weeks of a sharp increase in participation after the legislative elections in 2022 where abstention was particularly high. This Republican surge rather benefited the candidates of the future ex-presidential majority whose electorate had probably lost interest in the European elections. The National Rally, which for a long time outperformed when abstention was high, did not suffer from the renewed interest of citizens.
The Popular Front dreams of a grand slam in Lyon
Marie-Charlotte Garin, outgoing environmentalist MP, is the only candidate from the Rhône to have been elected in the first round. She obtained 51.51% of the votes, ahead of the Renaissance candidate by 30 points. Boris Tavernier, also an environmentalist candidate, missed victory by a handful of votes (49.95%). In the two other Lyon constituencies, the candidates of the New Popular Front took the lead: Anaïs Belouassa-Chérifi in the 1st and Sandrine Runel in the 4th. For the latter, the outcome of the vote is more uncertain. She will face in a triangular, Anne Brugnera, the outgoing MP Renaissance, and the RN. The 10% of the LR candidate could allow the candidate of the presidential majority to keep her seat.
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In the Metropolis of Lyon, other candidates from the New Popular Front are in a favorable vote. Idir Boumertit (LFI) in the 14th came close to victory in the first round (48.78%). In the 7th constituency and in a triangular, Abdelkader Lahmar (LFI) should overthrow the outgoing deputy Alexandre Vincendet (Horizons). In Villeurbanne, the second round could bring its share of surprises. Gabriel Amard (LFI), outgoing Insoumis deputy, takes the lead with a large lead. But in the second round, he will be alone against Jean-Paul Bret, the former PS mayor of the city, who has gone on a crusade against the elected Insoumis who has the support of Renaissance. He will transform the second round into a referendum on the person of Gabriel Amard. However, the rise seems unlikely.
Renaissance is holding up pretty well
On the evening of the European elections, the additions of votes could make the outgoing deputies of the presidential majority fear the worst. In three weeks, Valérie Hayer’s 14% turned into around twenty% and defied the polls which predicted a violent decline. In territories where CSP+ sociology embraces the Macronist offer, the surge in participation benefited the candidates of the presidential majority. The disaster scenario did not come to fruition but it is nevertheless difficult to say that the bet of the dissolution of Emmanuel Macron is a success. His troops will pay a high price. In Lyon, Thomas Rudigoz (1st district) is on a very unfavorable ballot, as is Alexandre Vincendet (7th). Sarah Tanzilli (13th) withdrew to block the National Rally which came in first and called to vote for Victor Prandt, the candidate of the New Popular Front.
Thomas Gassilloud (Agir) is well placed in the 10th and will benefit from the withdrawal of the socialist Florence Perrin. Jean-Luc Fugit (11th) is left behind by the candidate of the RN and the Republicans, Alexandre Humbert Dupalais, but will have a Republican front behind him after the withdrawal of the communist candidate of the New Popular Front. In the 5th, Blandine Brocard is in a favorable tie in a triangular where the left and the RN have no vote reserves when the 14% of LR Bastien Joint seems acquired to her. The salvation of Cyrille Isaac-Sybille will also involve a postponement of LR voters on his candidacy in a triangular in the 12th.
Renaissance should keep four deputies when pessimistic projections only suggested the re-election of one of theirs. In 2017, La République en Marche, in full wave, had won 12 of the 14 constituencies. In 2022, it had kept eight. On July 7, Renaissance should save four or even five. If the centrist party resists well in the Rhône, it nevertheless follows the downward trajectory nationally.
The return of RN deputies?
Since the introduction of a dose of proportional representation by François Mitterrand in 1986 and the election of Bruno Gollnisch from Lyon, the far-right party had not managed to have one of its members from the Rhône elected to the National Assembly. On July 7, the National Rally hopes to win at least in the 13th constituency.
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The departmental delegate, Tiffany Joncour, came out on top (36%) with a ten-point lead over the candidate of the New Popular Front, whom she will face in the second round. The 10% of the votes of the very right-wing candidate of the Republicans, Philippe Meunier, could decide the fate of the election. The outgoing deputy Sarah Tanzilli withdrew to block the RN. A maneuver whose effectiveness is difficult to measure in this summer of 2024. In the 11th, the candidate invested by the Republicans running Ciotti and the RN can also hope to be elected. He also obtained 36% of the votes and will face a Republican front against him. The 10% of the LR will once again be the arbiter of the second round.
In the Rhône, the RN came first in four rural or peri-urban constituencies (8th, 9th, 11 and 13th). The national dynamic around Jordan Bardella’s party was also reflected in the urban environment. In Lyon, a city where the RN is traditionally in difficulty, its candidates are invited to the second round in the 1st and 4th constituencies. A historic breakthrough in an evening where Marine Le Pen’s camp shattered numerous glass ceilings. Their candidates will be present in the second round in 11 of the 14 constituencies of the Rhône. During the previous legislative elections, in 2022, no RN was invited. In the first round, the RN obtained 71,000 votes in the department. This June 30, they had three times as many.
