The Minister of the Interior is a candidate in the 10th constituency of the North in the 2024 legislative elections. What are the expected results for Gérald Darmanin and what are his chances of winning?
Currently Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin is also a candidate for the 2024 legislative elections, the polls of which are scheduled for June 30 and July 7. The resident of Place Beauvau is a candidate for re-election in the 10th constituency of the North, which brings together the cantons of Tourcoing Nord and Tourcoing Nord-Est. He had already won the deputy seat in the last elections, in 2022, leaving his deputy the right to sit in his place as long as he is in government.
Gérald Darmanin did not fail to support Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly after the European elections, when his candidacy was made official on June 11. And he has clearly identified the main opponent of this express campaign, the National Rally, which he intends to “roll back” in his constituency “without insulting the voters” of the far-right party. The Minister of the Interior said he was “worried” about the political situation in the country since the 2024 European elections. “This is what I am fighting for, in my constituency, surrounded by my friends. But also nationally, modestly as I can do elsewhere, so that the French can wake up.”
What are Gérald Darmanin’s chances of being elected in the 2024 legislative elections?
Gérald Darmanin is not in his first legislative election, far from it. The mayor of Tourcoing had already been elected twice in the 10th district of the North, in 2012 then in 2022. During the last ballot to elect the deputies sitting in the National Assembly, the Minister of the Interior had indeed been elected, but it was his deputy, Vincent Ledoux, who took his place at the Palais Bourbon so that he could maintain his activity within the government.
If we rely on the result of the last legislative elections, Gérald Darmanin has his chances of being elected deputy for the 10th constituency of the North and could give up his place to his deputy if he sees himself reappointed within the government, as this was the case during the last national election. But the result of the 2024 European elections may worry the Minister of the Interior: in his stronghold, it was the National Rally which came in first with 35.49% of the votes, far ahead of the presidential Renaissance party (14.8% polls) on June 9.
We cannot, for the moment, trust the polls to know whether Gérald Darmanin can be elected at the end of these legislative elections. For the moment, institutes only give estimates on a national scale. But this seems to be going badly for the presidential party supported by Gérald Darmanin, since voting intentions currently favor the RN (36%), the New Popular Front (27%) before the presidential majority (20%) according to the Elabe poll for BFM TV dated June 23, 2024.
Will Gérald Darmanin remain Minister of the Interior after the legislative elections?
If Gérald Darmanin is elected and Emmanuel Macron asks him to join the possible new government that will be formed or if there is no reshuffle following these elections, it will be his deputy, Vincent Ledoux, who will sit in the National Assembly. This is also what happened in 2022.
On the other hand, Gérald Darmanin set clear conditions for his return to the government at the microphone of France Inter this Friday, June 21: “if I am beaten [lors des élections législatives] I will obviously resign that same evening.” The Minister of the Interior believes that this is “normal. When you are in politics, you have to be elected.” “If there is a majority, the President of the Republic will choose his government, and if the ultra-left or the ultra-right wins, it is obvious that from Monday morning I will no longer be minister. The President will decide what he will do, but I will not be a minister one more day.” He thus assured that he “would not go to work with Mr. Bardella or Mr. Mélenchon.”
In the 10th constituency of Tourcoing, the Minister of the Interior will not have a candidate from the Republican party to face, the candidate having decided to give up before the deadline for submitting candidacy. It is difficult to estimate whether this will allow Gérald Darmanin to collect more votes, since he will be opposed to six other candidates. The minister will face a candidate from the Popular Front (Leslie Mortreux), a various right-wing candidate (Jérôme Garcia), an RN (Bastien Verbrugghe) but also candidates from Lutte Ouvrière (Christophe Charlon), from the Résistons party of Jean Lassalle (Marcelin Brazon) and a Reconquest candidate (Gustave Vigui-Desplaces).
