During the months of the campaign, candidate Trump pledged to impose tariffs of 60% on all goods from China and up to 20% on goods imported from all other countries. It even went further for certain sectors: taxes on imported cars, for example, will be multiplied three times!
The goal of these increases is to protect American businesses and consumers. A promise directly linked to its slogan, “America first”. Donald Trump has repeatedly told these voters that these taxes “ will not be a cost to you, but a cost to another country “. An assertion rejected by almost all the economists interviewed.
“Prices of EVERYTHING are about to go up”
Since the election of Donald Trump on Wednesday, November 5, searches on Google for “tariffs” (customs duties) have increased significantly. American Internet users are also looking for information on future taxes on Nissan cars, the consequences of this measure on inflation or even “Trump's customs duties explained”. Maybe a little late to be interested…
The subject is also highly debated on the social network My MAGA neighbor (pro-Trump) said to me: “I just read that customs duties will increase product prices. I don't understand. I thought China was going to pay them.” I explained how customs tariffs work. I wish you could see the guy's expression when he figured it out “, says Jon Cooper, an elected Democrat.
« Customs duties are taxes. The foreign company or importer pays the taxes, yes. They then pass the cost on to the consumer, by increasing prices. So the rates are paid by YOU – and the prices of EVERYTHING are about to go up », also writes Tristan Snell, a lawyer who proposes naming the future increases “ la trumpflation ».
Donald Trump had already relaunched the trade war during his first term, but not to this extent. According to a study by Mary Lovely and Kimberly Clausing, researchers at PIIE, and relayed by the newspaper Le Monde, these customs duties would hit the equivalent of around 11% of the American gross domestic product (GDP) compared to 1.8% during the first trade war. “ The purchasing power of the poorest 20% of Americans would decline by 4.2%, while that of median-income households would decline by 2.7%. », Write our colleagues.
Prices will increase for Americans
« This will clearly disrupt European exportersconcedes Sarah Guillou, director of the Innovation and Competition department of the OFCE, for La Tribune. The latter will either have to pass on the duties on their selling prices or cut back on their margins. This should therefore lead to an increase in the prices of European goods for American consumers. »
But the risk is limited: “ Europe does not sell many goods where only price plays a role. It produces a lot of high-quality goods that will always find buyers, even with an increase in their price. » Sarah Guillou discusses the case of luxury, planes, high technology and even pharmaceutical products. “ Some goods don't even have American competitors! This is the case for cognac, for example. For these products, it will be American consumers who will have to pay more.. »
Faced with this observation, Trump's supporters think that this is surely a posture to renegotiate international trade agreements. “ Donald Trump is the man of tariffs, but he is also a negotiatora former official in his administration told CNN. If he can use tariffs as a means to an end, he will. »
