We are talking here about figures at the global level which indicate for example that the month of October 2024 was the second hottest October in history after that of 2023. We thus observed 15.25°C of temperature average, or 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels. If this type of record is starting to be common, it is the frequency that is increasingly worrying experts. For example, this was the 15th month in a 16-month period with temperatures averaging +1.5°C.
According to Copernicus, it is more than likely that the average temperature for the whole of 2024 will be 1.55°C above industrial levels, beyond the most ambitious objective of the Paris agreement, which aimed to keep the increase below two degrees, and if possible below one and a half degrees.
To find out more about these results and the concrete effects on our climate, we asked a few questions to Xavier Fettweis, climatologist at the University of Liège. “A world at +1.5°C is a Belgium at +2.5°C, in facthe says straight away. If we have observed such high temperatures in recent months, it is because of the temperature of the oceans, which have continued to warm since January 2023. There is a machine that has been launched and we do not know if it will stop at some point.“
Human-caused global warming has reached an ‘unprecedented rate’ but there is ‘some optimism’
What worries him is that current observations go beyond the modeling on which experts base themselves. “The models actually underestimated what we are seeing today, no one expected this much warming right nowhe warns. It is possible that certain processes are not yet sufficiently taken into account in the models.“
The question today is whether we can still stop this machine. “Either we are facing a natural variation in climate and things will calm down while remaining in a context of global warming, or we are facing a phenomenon of lasting runaway. This is an open question for years to come. We must remember that the experts all say that with a rise in temperatures of 1.5°C over time, we are heading for disaster. There is therefore a lot to do at COP29… What is certain is that we are set for a rise in temperatures until 2050, even if we take strong measures.“
