When times are troubled, what is needed above all is cohesion. But what resembles common sense is unfortunately not always shared. Too bad, especially for those in the automotive industry, already severely shaken by the Covid pandemic in 2020, and who now have to deal with the biggest revolution in transport since the advent of the internal combustion engine. Without proper consultation, it has already been two years since Europe decided that all new cars sold from January 1, 2035 will be 100% electric. And if nothing says that this fateful date will not be kept – review clauses are already planned to assess progress –, this forced transition, the relevance of which remains questionable, is already punctuated by the first checkpoints that are almost impossible to maintain. The first of these: the tightening of the CAFE standard for 2025.
In France, as in other European countries where the automobile concerns hundreds of thousands of jobs, representatives of the sector have been warning, each in turn, for months, about the consequences of these fine speeches and other political promises. a bit idealistic.
Repeated alerts
Xavier Horent, general delegate of the Mobilians professional union, and Luc Chatel, president of the Automobile Platform, warn of the dangers of this rigor. Just as European car manufacturers, through the voice of Luca De Meo, also boss of the Renault group, wish to maintain good financial momentum. Certainly, these men defend the “car”. But the situation turns out to be serious enough to go beyond intellectual postures. The multiple calls from these leaders for a re-discussion of CO2 objectives and fines of all kinds go well beyond simple self-interested lobbying. For those who doubted it, the layoffs and cascading social plans announced in recent weeks by major players in the industry are proof.
More than 6 out of 10 cars sold all-electric in 2030?
However, instead of reconsidering the matter, the French government is once again driving the point home in recent days. Monday, November 4, Agnès Pannier-Runacher, Minister of Ecological Transition, François Durovray, Minister Delegate for Transport, and Olga Givernet, Minister Delegate for Energy, presented two new versions of texts underlying the French Strategy for energy and climate (SFEC). These two texts are the National Low-Carbon Strategy (SNBC) and the Multi-Annual Energy Program (PPE), from which it appears, for automobiles, that sales of electric cars will have to reach 66% in 2030, which would bring the vehicle fleet to around 15%. Two objectives that are even higher than the rest of Europe, and whose comparison with the 2025 results is puzzling. Today, electric sales are around 15% and the vehicle fleet represents around 2%… Of course, the texts presented by members of the government are subject to discussion and do not ratify anything, but the injunctions leave one wondering , at a time when this same government intends to reduce purchasing aid for electric cars from 2025 and penalize manufacturers who will not sell enough electric cars, at the risk of straining R&D precisely to advance battery cars. However, without tax incentives and massive investments in research, the price of electric cars and the ecosystem that goes with them will not fall.
Take responsibility
Easy posture for the decision-makers in power, who seem as disconnected from industrial and market realities. On the set of the big Rendez-vous d’Europe 1 last Sunday, Agnès Pannier-Runacher was still talking “a transformation that could create thousands of jobs”forgetting that, due to lack of orders, the projects for large European battery factories are precisely on hold, while those already built are reducing their activity. And the Minister of Ecological Transition added that “if the automotive sector does not adapt, it will disappear”. A disturbing relief from guilt while thousands of employees in France and Europe are in the hot seat due to a trajectory that the public authorities have adopted, alone in their corner.
