Since the start of the year, sales of electric cars (EV) represent 17% of the market, in relative stagnation since last year (16% over the first 10 months of 2023).
And to decarbonize its economy and our country, the government wants to fully leverage this lever of the electric car, among others, such as public transport or carpooling. Thus, he presented global projections for 2030 and 2050, which will materialize in a Multi-year Energy Program (PPE) and a National Low Carbon Strategy (SNBC). Not for the first time, moreover, since these two “plans” have already been announced twice in the past, and for the record, never achieved.
In the field of transport, the government's major focus is the electrification of the automobile fleet and the development of public transport.
Objective 66% of new EVs in 2030
For the first axis, the objectives are clear and written in black and white. The objective is to reach a 66% share of EVs in new car sales in 2030, before reaching 100% in 2035we already know that this is the objective set by Europe. And there is mention of a 15% share of EVs in the total vehicle fleet, still in 2030. But it is currently the 2025 Finance Bill, under discussion in parliament, which must define aid to achieve this objective. We only know that they will be cut by more than half, a priori (700 million euros in aid compared to 1.5 billion).
The aim is to reduce CO2 emissions from the transport sector. The SNBC forecasts an emission level of 90 MtCO2eq for 2030, compared to 131 in 2022.
From our point of view, the objective is ambitious, very ambitious. If we base ourselves on the trajectory of EV market share between 2023 and 2024, it would take not 6 years to reach it, but almost 50 years, at a rate of 1% more market share per year ! A stagnant trend not necessarily representative of what will happen in the future, of course… But even considering that supply is finally adapting to demand, in terms of price, autonomy, charging speed , it is very unlikely that in less than 6 years, 2/3 of sales will be electric, especially since the trend is towards thinning the aid portfolio! And we know what happened in Germany, when the ecological bonus on purchases was purely and simply eliminated in January 2024: sales collapsed by -32% over the first eight months of the year!
However, for the Minister for Transport François Durovray, electrification is an opportunity: “compared to previous periods, we believe in the capacity of science, the capacity of our industries to achieve what was not possible in the past. Models are practically on the shelf now and it is up to us, the government itself, to allow these manufacturers to develop the electric vehicle market. New electrics for private fleets, for corporate fleets, also collective vehicles with major challenges and beyond the electrification of vehicles, the challenge of electrification of infrastructures. And in this regard, the ministry that I have the honor to lead will have the challenge of electrifying the national road network“.
Electrification yes, and reinforcement of shared transport
For the second axis, the government is talking about massification, by encouraging carpooling and public transport. The creation of coach lines for example.
“Transport now accounts for 30% of the country's greenhouse emissions, a figure that has not declined. Emissions have even increased over the past 30 years. The road share of these emissions represents 94%“, conceded François Durovray. He also cited the figure of 1,000 billion kilometers traveled per year by the French, 82% of which are by car, 12% by public transport and 3% by walking.
The minister also cited three ways to achieve the result: “develop, build, and electrify”. He particularly took car sharing and buses as an example: “I usually say that the best mobility is the one we are not forced to do“, and he wants to reverse the past trend in city planning which “has led to an increase in mobility needs, in particular by moving workplaces away from places of residence“.
Regarding carpooling, he knocked down an open door: “It will have escaped no one's notice that a vehicle that goes from one to two passengers automatically halves the greenhouse gas emissions produced“He will present a national plan for the development of express coaches at the beginning of 2025.”A bus with 30 people is a lot fewer cars on the road.” He also wants to double the share of rail.
