What end of autumn and start of winter will France experience, weather-wise? Although it is obviously difficult to know with precision, certain major trends can still be identified.
Towards generally mild temperatures
From a temperature point of view, Météo France, for example, expects the next three months to be warmer than the climatic normal, based on the years 1991-2020.
According to the forecasting institute, this scenario has around a 50% chance of materializing, compared to 33% in a scenario in which no particular index would be detected (since Météo France considers three hypotheses: warmer, consistent with normal or colder).
The image below, which compiles forecasts from around ten models, confirms that a positive temperature anomaly (difference from normal) should indeed be noted in Europe and France next quarter. But it suggests that it would be rather limited, of the order of 0.5°C. An order of magnitude confirmed by The Weather Channel .
Météo France points out that these trends are understood on the scale of the entire quarter, and only represent an average. A quarter that is generally warmer than normal can therefore experience occasional cold waves, depending on the atmospheric circulation of the moment. These episodes are, however, made rarer by global warming.
Few clues regarding the level of precipitation
As is often the case, forecasts for precipitation, which is a very volatile phenomenon, are more uncertain. Thus, according to Météo France, “no scenario is favored in France, as in most of Europe”.
The meteorological institute nevertheless adds that “Wetter than normal conditions are however likely in Scandinavian countries” while conditions “drier than normal” are likely “on the southern Mediterranean and the Iberian Peninsula. » This is among other things reminded by the image below, which compiles the precipitation anomalies expected by the main seasonal forecast models.
Weather Cities and The Weather Channel go a little further by indicating that the quarter should generally be consistent with normal from a rainfall point of view, and that the chances of seeing violent phenomena appear are relatively reduced, particularly in November and January.
Please note, however, that these trends do not mean that rain will be rare, since the seasonal averages for the mentioned quarter obviously show more rain than those of the previous quarter.