We are not calling into question the competence of the IGF. But the figures he produced are not final since they must be certified by the Court of Auditors.
Then we must make a distinction between the figures provided by the IGF and the conclusions drawn by the government. Let us explain: the IGF gave a figure of 1891, 1 billion of debt unaccounted for or not appearing in the statistics. The government concluded that the budget deficit was an annual average of 10.5% of GDP between 2019 and 2023. And that is where the problem lies. Indeed, according to our checks of the balance of national accounts, this amount of debt (1891.1) cannot correspond to a budget deficit of 10.5% of GDP. This is why we were talking about inconsistency in the figures.
Let’s be more down to earth. When the government says 3 × y = 12 and we divide 12 by y and find 6 then we conclude that there is a problem with the numbers!
It is this enormous deficit of 10.5% which scares the markets more than the 1891.1 billion in additional debt. We therefore understand why Moody’s lowered Senegal’s rating. The immediate consequence is the increase in credit costs for Senegal. Given its negative impact on Senegal’s economic credibility, the government could do without its declaration, especially since its figures are provisional.
Pr Amath Ndiaye
FASEG UCAD
5/10/24
#Senegal
