THE ESSENTIAL
- The overall lifetime risk of dementia among middle-aged Americans is 42%, with an average risk of 35% for men and 48% for women.
- Rates were significantly higher among women, black people, and APOE ε4 carriers, with lifetime risks ranging from approximately 45% to 60% in these populations.
- By 2060, the number of people diagnosed with dementia each year is expected to double, from around 514,000 cases in 2020 to around one million per year by 2060.
Memory, concentration, judgment… Dementia is characterized by a progressive decline in these cognitive functions. Over the years, the number of cases increases due to the aging of the population, but also because of genetic factors, high rates of hypertension and diabetes, obesity, poor diet, lack of physical activity and poor mental health. According to scientists at Johns Hopkins University (USA), the risk of cognitive decline is underestimated due to unreliable documentation of the disease in medical records and certificates of deaths, minimal surveillance of early-stage dementia, and underreporting among racial minority groups.
Dementia: 35% risk in men and 48% in women after age 55
In a new study, published in the journal Nature Medicinethe team thus wanted to estimate the risk of developing dementia over the course of life, more precisely from the age of 55 to 95 years. To do this, she relied on information collected as part of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Neurocognitive Study cohort which, since 1987, has closely followed the vascular health and cognitive functions of 15,043 adults as they progress. are getting older. Between 1987 and 2020, 3,252 participants were identified as having developed dementia, according to the data.
The lifetime risk of dementia after age 55 was 42%, an average risk of 35% for men and 48% for women. The results also showed a higher risk in black adults and in carriers of a mutation in the APOE4 gene (between 45% and 60%), which codes for a protein that transports cholesterol and other lipids into the circulation blood. As a reminder, the presence of a certain version of the APOE4 gene is considered the most important genetic risk factor for the late development of Alzheimer’s disease.
514,000 new cases of dementia per year in 2020 to around 1 million in 2060
“We applied the risk estimates to U.S. Census projections to estimate the annual number of incident dementia cases between 2020 and 2060,” the researchers wrote. The result: The number of Americans who will develop dementia each year is expected to increase from about 514,000 in 2020 to about one million in 2060. According to the authors, the relative growth in new cases of dementia was particularly pronounced among black people. “These data highlight the urgent need for policy measures that promote healthy aging, with a focus on health equity,” they concluded.
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