We have two NFL games on Christmas Day, so let me give you a bet on each of them. Merry Christmas everyone!!!
CHOIX #1: Steelers +3 (c. Chiefs)
The early afternoon game sees the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers.
If I had to bet, I would bet on the Steelers and three extra points. But be careful: I will not bet on this match, except for lucrative bets on player proposals. Regarding betting on the spreadI feel a lot more confident for the second Christmas match, which I will talk about a little later.
Several things worry me. First of all, Pittsburgh's defense hasn't been this stingy lately. Through their first 11 games, they gave up an average of 16.9 points per game. This figure has increased to 28.3 over the last four games.
Russell Wilson has also slowed his pace. After averaging 271 passing yards per game in his first six outings, he averaged 168 passing yards in his last three.
I still decided to bet on the Steelers +3 points. As you all know, the Chiefs have won many close games, and it won't be easy to come out of Pittsburgh with a victory. So far this year, the Steelers are 5-1 at home compared to just 5-4 on the road. They play much better football in front of their fans.
So, with very little confidence, I'm going to go with Pittsburgh +3, even though Patrick Mahomes has averaged 40 points in three career games against Pittsburgh. His ankle seemed fine last week, but will it be fine again? We'll find out soon!
CHOIX #2: Ravens –5,5 (c. Texans)
It is rare to see the visiting team be such a favorite, when they only have one more victory than the home team. But that's the case here, and I think there are good reasons for it.
In fact, my official bet for this game is to take the Ravens at -5.5 points. Let me explain why.
After starting the season with a strong 6-2 record, the Texans have hit a slump, going 3-4 since Week 9.
If we only focus on games where they have faced teams with a positive performance, Houston has a disappointing 1-4 record. In other words, they enjoyed themselves against weaker teams, while struggling to achieve victory against strong teams. Now the bad news is that Baltimore is clearly a good team.
Houston fans should also be concerned that their team may be very one-dimensional in this game. The Ravens have the better run defense, whether you look at rushing yards allowed per game or average yards gained per carry. They are very solid.
In the meantime, even if Joe Mixon is an effective running back, how will he find holes? Houston's offensive line wasn't that good to begin with, and they lost Shaq Mason last week. It seems very unlikely that he will be in uniform, and the same could be said for center Juice Scruggs. The center of the offensive line was a big problem last week against the Chiefs, and I don't see things improving this week.
Even CJ Stroud hasn't been very effective lately. If you pay attention to his last six games, he's thrown eight touchdown passes to seven interceptions, which is a terrible ratio.
To top it all off, he lost his good friend Tank Dell to a serious knee injury last week. The team was already playing without Stefon Diggs, so outside of Nico Collins, they no longer have any reliable players.
Certainly, the Texans signed Diontae Johnson. But he can't be expected to learn the strategies in such a short time. He shouldn't be much involved in this week's game.
Even the motivation factor works in Baltimore's favor. They are battling the Steelers for the AFC North title, which is very important to gain home-field advantage in the first round.
Meanwhile, the Texans have already secured their division and appear well on their way to finishing in fourth place. In other words, they're not desperate to win like Baltimore is.
So for all these reasons, my favorite choice for Christmas Day is for Baltimore to beat the Texans by a margin of at least six points.
