IIsrael announced retaliation against Iran after Iranian missiles rained on its soil. How far will the escalation go?
The conflict will extend from the Mediterranean to the Caspian. It’s written. After the Hamas attack on October 7 against Israel, the latter found itself facing Iran’s cronies in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq as well as in Yemen since Tehran hosts the leader of the Houthis. These hornet’s nests encircling Israel seek to exhaust it but after ten months of war of attrition, the Hebrew State regained the initiative by assassinating the leader of Hezbollah for Lebanon in Beirut on July 30 and, a few hours later, the political leader of Hamas in the middle of the secure neighborhood of Tehran: a real humiliation for Iran because Ismaïl Haniyeh was the official guest of the mullahs for the enthronement of the new president and he had just met the Supreme Guide.
Will Israel dare to bomb Iranian nuclear sites?
Netanyahu’s dream is to put an end to Iran’s nuclear program by bringing the United States along with it. However, in the middle of the American electoral campaign, neither candidate can refuse their support for Israel. The latter has regained the initiative and wants to restore its deterrence capacity. So now is the time or never. By sending missiles to Tel Aviv, Iran offered Netanyahu the pretext to act and the Prime Minister knows that the Israelis blame him not only for the drama of October 7 but also for allowing the Iranian program to prosper when it was in power. He has already neutralized radars in Syria to open the air highway leading to Iran and then destroy sensitive installations there. The nuclear sites are buried and scattered but Israel undoubtedly has the means to delay the program for a few years.
So Netanyahu would do without the American green light?
He has already proven that he doesn’t listen to anyone. Israel is Washington’s spoiled child: we tell it “don’t go” and if it goes anyway, we support and approve of it. Since October 7, the United States has dispatched two carrier strike groups to the Gulf and the Mediterranean, and 40,000 of its soldiers are stationed in the area. Israel does not intend to miss this opportunity to strike Iran. On the other hand, his hope that this will lead to the fall of the mullahs is illusory, even if the Iranians, oppressed by this regime, no longer support him.
Is it having brought Hamas and Hezbollah to their knees that gives Netanyahu this assurance?
Yes. After reducing Gaza to a wasteland, he turned against Hezbollah which had attacked it the day after October 7 on the orders of Iran and without referring to the Lebanese government. The way in which Israel liquidated the political and military leadership of the “Party of God”, by infiltrating it as far as Beirut and Tehran, paralyzed those who remained: the public funeral of Hassan Nasrallah could not take place and his presumed successor has already been targeted by a violent attack on his bunker in Beirut on Friday.
However, Hezbollah is doing better than resisting the Israelis in southern Lebanon…
Yes, because its infantrymen are seasoned. Israel overwhelmingly dominates the air and intelligence, but the Shiite militia has prepared and trapped terrain it knows like the back of its hand. The IDF’s setbacks in southern Lebanon boost Hezbollah’s morale.
We hardly hear the Arab countries – Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt – commenting on the events. For what ?
To varying degrees, Hezbollah has shown itself to be their enemy, training militias in Iraq, Yemen, and targeting civilian and economic installations in the Gulf. These Sunni countries will therefore not complain about the misfortunes of Hezbollah and the decline of Iranian influence. As for Hamas, they ban it at home: they see it as a terrorist organization used by Tehran and linked to its other henchmen in the region, a Palestinian version of the Muslim Brotherhood and their ideology.
They could at least come to the aid of the inhabitants of Gaza…
These countries are schizophrenic. Their opinion, which follows the drama in Gaza on the continuous news channels, supports the Palestinians but the governments consider it futile to fight Israel and prefer to cooperate with it, for example within the framework of the “Abraham Accords”. The people can’t take it anymore but there is no election to reflect popular emotion. The heir to the Saudi throne, who wanted to get closer to Israel before October 7, distanced himself to show that he too supported Palestine, and he spoke again of the need for a Palestinian state. This sends a calming signal to internal and Islamic opinion but does not commit to anything.
Meanwhile, Gaza is going through hell…
Israel continues to bomb the enclave, there are deaths every day, including in the West Bank, but the spotlight has shifted to Lebanon and Iran, obscuring Gaza. And if there is finally a ceasefire, all Gazans will ask for visas for Europe, Canada, Australia, because life is no longer possible in this territory.
Does Israel want to empty Gaza of its population?
Certainly. It also sends a message to its neighbors: if you threaten Israel, you will be destroyed.
Why is Israel invading Lebanon?
He attacked it in 1978 because Yasser Arafat had transformed southern Lebanon into “Fatah-land”, and in 1982 because the same Arafat had made Beirut the Palestinian capital. In 2024, Israel enters Lebanon because Hassan Nasrallah, who has become the de facto leader of this country, attacked it on the orders of Iran. It is therefore time for the Lebanese to regain a patriotic spirit and put the interests of Lebanon above those of foreign powers.
Do you believe it?
Having been “fed” to guardianship was deadly for Lebanon, going from the status of “Switzerland of the Levant” to that of a failed state. The country can be sensitive to the Palestinian cause without being subjugated. This interference must stop and a new political class must emerge, starting by finally electing a President of the Republic. The Church must rediscover its historical role as a “moral compass” and emerge from compromise. France can help, by involving other Europeans, Americans and Arab countries in this project of restoring Lebanese institutions.
