Max Verstappen started the 2024 season by bagging seven victories in ten Grands Prix. After his ultra-dominant 2023 campaign, many already saw the Dutchman easily winning his fourth world championship.
But as always in Formula 1, things are never that simple. Thus, McLaren came back at a gallop while Red Bull regressed, the British team having ended up overtaking the reigning champions and now sitting at the top of the constructors’ standings with six Grands Prix remaining at the end of the season.
On the drivers’ side, eight GPs have passed since Verstappen’s last victory in Barcelona. In that time, the championship leader’s lead has shrunk from 69 to 52 points, with Lando Norris his closest challenger.
The McLaren driver has won two of the last four races and is in the fight for his first world title. A fight into which he really embarked after his second success at Zandvoort, for a return to form which perhaps arrived a bit too late.
So who of these two favorites will be crowned 2024 world champion, and under what circumstances can they become one?
Who are the drivers still in the running for the world title?
Max Verstappen (winner), Lando Norris (second) and Charles Leclerc (third) on the podium of the Emilia-Romagna GP.
Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images
There are currently six races and three sprints remaining in this 2024 season, with a total of 180 points to be scored. Seven drivers can therefore still mathematically become world champions this year, starting from first in the standings, Verstappen, to seventh, George Russell, who has a deficit of 176 points on the Dutchman.
The second Mercedes driver, Lewis Hamilton, is sixth with 19 points ahead of his teammate, 16 points behind the driver in front of him, Carlos Sainz. This means that the Gap between the Spaniard and Verstappen is 141 points, so it is possible to say that it would be a miracle for Sainz, Hamilton or Russell to be crowned champion.
However, things tighten up from fourth place: Oscar Piastri is 94 points behind Verstappen, and he is also the best performing driver in the last six rounds. Charles Leclerc is third and is 86 points behind the leader. Such a large gap means Leclerc is unlikely to become champion this year.
In second position is Lando Norris, 34 points ahead of the Monegasque. The McLaren driver seems, at the moment and realistically, the only one truly capable of challenging Verstappen.
How can Lando Norris become 2024 world champion?
Lando Norris, winner at the Singapore GP.
Photo de: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images
To dethrone Verstappen this season, knowing that he is 52 points behind Austin, Norris must lead the defending champion by six points on average over the remaining six Grands Prix and three sprint races. If that happens, everything would be decided in the season finale in Abu Dhabi.
However, the Briton could win the championship before then. For example, if he takes maximum points in the final events and Verstappen scores none (see table below), Norris would be champion after the sprint race of the Qatar Grand Prix, during the pre- last weekend of the season.
For the record, it would be two years in a row that the championship was won after the Losail sprint, since Verstappen won his third title last year on this circuit and after the short race.
Scenario where Norris wins maximum points and Verstappen scores none:
| Courses restantes | UNITED STATES | Mexico | Brazil | vegas | Qatar | Abu Dhabi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points still to be recorded | 180 | 146 | 112 | 86 | 52 | 26 |
| Norris’s total points | 279 | 313 | 339 | 373 | 407 | 433 |
| Gap between Norris and Verstappen | Led by 52 | Led by 18 | Advance of 8 | Lead of 42 | Lead of 76 | Advance of 102 |
It is of course very unlikely that Verstappen will not score further points this year, especially as the Australian GP was the only event where he did not finish in the top 10 in 2024, due to of engine failure.
So, if Norris wins all the remaining races, in addition to the bonus points for the fastest lap, the 24-year-old driver will need Verstappen to finish at most second in the main races (which would then be 6×8 points difference, so 48 points) and no higher than third in the sprints (which would then make an additional 3×2 points difference, therefore a total of 54 units taken).
Often considered unimportant, the sprints will be crucial this time. Indeed, if the scenario described in the paragraph above occurs, Norris will be champion with a two-point lead. On the other hand, if Verstappen finishes second in the three sprints and the last six main races, the Dutchman will win his fourth crown by one point.
On the other hand, Norris has only three wins this season, so it’s also unrealistic to expect him to win all of the final rounds. So, if he finishes second every weekend and to maintain an average of six points over Verstappen, Norris will need his rival to finish fourth or lower.
If the Briton is third, the Red Bull driver must not be higher than sixth. For the sprints, Norris will need to finish in the top three, with fourth place worth only five points.
The McLaren driver must therefore maintain a gap of six points with Verstappen, but will he be able to do so? In the last six races, the Dutchman has scored 76 points to his rival’s 108, averaging just 5.3 points per race in favor of Norris.
The reigning champion therefore remains favorite to win the 2024 world championship, especially since it is still plausible that Norris takes the maximum points for the rest of the season, without being crowned.
Lando Norris in parc ferme after his pole position at Monza.
Photo de: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images
How can Max Verstappen become 2024 world champion?
The conditions for Verstappen to become world champion are much simpler since the maximum number of points Norris can finish the season with is 459, just 128 more than the Dutchman’s current total.
So 129 points over the next six race weekends will be enough for Verstappen to be crowned this year, which equates to around five Grand Prix victories, plus a handful of points scored in the sprints. But that’s still not very realistic given that the Dutchman hasn’t won in eight rounds and has only been on the podium three times in that time.
At this point, it’s more of a positioning game for Verstappen, who must ensure he doesn’t finish too far behind Norris, given that the MCL38 remains more capable than the Red Bull for now. This goal of 129 units also fits into the scenario where Norris would score maximum points for the rest of the season.
Obviously, if Verstappen finishes ahead of Norris in a Grand Prix, it would go a long way towards securing his fourth title. He could also win the championship after the Qatar sprint if the current points gap remains as it is.
Even with the highly unlikely possibility that Verstappen pockets all the points and Norris none over the remainder of the season, the Dutchman would not take the crown straight away, as he would clinch the title after the sprint race in Brazil, three weekends away. before the end of the season.
Scenario where Verstappen wins maximum points and Norris scores none:
| Courses restantes | UNITED STATES | Mexico | Brazil | vegas | Qatar | Abu Dhabi |
| Points still to be recorded | 180 | 146 | 112 | 86 | 52 | 26 |
| Verstappen’s points total | 331 | 365 | 391 | 417 | 451 | 477 |
| Gap with Norris | 52 | 86 | 112 | 138 | 172 | 198 |
