After a record longevity for a resigning government in charge of current affairs – under the Fifth and even under the Fourth Republic – Gabriel Attal finally has his replacement. Michel Barnier was appointed this Thursday, September 5 by Emmanuel Macron to take his seat at Matignon. No time to breathe, this new Prime Minister will not benefit from much respite; only the management of current affairs having been carried out this summer.
Barely chosen, a pile of pending files awaits him on the table. Such as the fundamental text of the 2025 State budget and several decrees in different ministries.
But before tackling the legislative aspect, the former European Commissioner will have to confront the institutional aspect. With his government formed, Michel Barnier will have to deliver his general policy speech to a National Assembly that is not very inclined to cooperate.
A coalition government and the threat of censorship
First challenge for the new tenant of Matignon: to form a new government. To succeed in getting its texts voted on, it must be a coalition. That is to say, the central bloc formed by the presidential camp (Ensemble pour la République, Horizons et Indépendants and Modem) relies on allies on the right and the left to succeed in getting the government’s texts voted on.
On the day of its nomination, the National Rally already indicated that it would not necessarily vote against the new government. The Le Penists indicated that they would wait for the general policy speech before making a decision. Insoumis, ecologists, communists and socialists have already declared that they will vote for censure.
This assumes that ministers from these political movements will be in the future executive to try to drain parliamentarians from their camp text by text. Particularly in key positions such as that of the Ministry of Finance. The essential text of the 2025 budget which arrives at the beginning of October will indeed require a lot of cooperation to avoid being voted on late. At the risk of creating blockages in the country’s administration.
The next Ministers of Education, Health and Agriculture will also be closely scrutinized, given the emergencies that have mobilized the country in recent months, such as the deterioration of educational establishments, particularly in Seine-Saint-Denis, the saturation of hospitals or the anger of farmers.
The general policy speech
The Constitution does not require it, but tradition does. Michel Barnier can, if he wishes, conform to his predecessors and deliver a general policy speech to the deputies. A way of setting out the broad guidelines of his government programme, the main reforms and measures he wants to implement.
Similarly, the new Prime Minister can, traditionally, submit to a vote of confidence. Either, according to article 58 of the Constitution which proposes it, “to engage before the National Assembly the responsibility of the Government”. In the absence of a relative majority, and from a stronger without a majority at all – as is the case today – the Prime Minister avoids having a vote of confidence at the risk of not obtaining it.
On January 17, 2024, Gabriel Attal, at the head of a relative majority in the hemicycle, was not bothered by this, for example.
The shadow of the 2025 budget
The annual draft finance bill (PLF), one of the only mandatory legislative texts, particularly enormous and complex, must be submitted to Parliament no later than the first Tuesday in October, i.e. October 1 this year. It defines the entire allocation of the State budget for the year 2025.
With a prime minister appointed only on September 5, the new government has just a few weeks to complete this next budgetan unprecedented and potentially perilous situation. What is more, in a context of the absence of an absolute majority in the Assembly and degraded public finances.
Following the budget, the social security budget is also one of the fundamental texts of this parliamentary session. The PLFSS as it is called (Social Security Financing Bill) is submitted by the Government to the National Assembly no later than October 15. Parliament votes on the PLFSS at the same time as the PLF and has 50 days to decide.
Previously, these two texts must have been presented to the Council of Ministers, and before that have received the opinions of the High Council of Public Finances (HCFP) and the Council of State.
The timing is therefore very tight. After the debate in the National Assembly and the Senate, the finance law must have been adopted, promulgated and published before the following January 1st. If the deadlines are not met, the bill may be adopted by ordinance.
Pending files
Finally, several ministries have seen their actions significantly slowed down by the absence of a clear political guideline and limited room for maneuver over the last two months. Many promulgations are thus awaiting validation by Michel Barnier.
Education
As the school year began on Monday, September 2, the resigning Minister of Education, Nicole Belloubet, specified that the decree making it compulsory to obtain the brevet was frozen since this reform must be the subject of debates in the National Assembly.
“The publication of the texts reforming the methods of evaluating the patent is suspended until the formation of a new government,” she told the press. Housing
The uncertainty surrounding the political situation also has direct consequences on measures to combat the housing crisis. As the newspaper Le Monde explains, reforms to try to make the real estate market and access to rentals more fluid are currently still at a standstill.
Health
Same story on the health side, and more particularly concerning the public hospital. Professionals in the sector are impatient with strong gestures requested concerning the budget. This, in order to relieve overloaded structures, with waiting times in emergency rooms strongly denounced this summer, as is the case at the Brest University Hospital.
The End of Life Bill
Another project that has been halted, and not the least, is that concerning the end of life. Le Monde points out that while the main articles of this law have already been voted on, including article 5 which includes “aid to die”, there are still fifteen articles that should have been submitted to Parliament. The formal vote was to take place on June 18, but the dissolution decided otherwise.
- BFMTV.com
