Fighting between Russian and Ukrainian soldiers continues in Donetsk Oblast, eastern Ukraine

In a few days, Ukraine will no longer authorize the transit of Russian gas through its territory towards European countries, warned its president, Volodymyr Zelensky. A decision that will affect Moldova, Slovakia and, to a lesser extent, Hungary.

In the European Union (EU), gas imports from Russia have fallen to less than 10% in 2023, compared to more than 40% in 2021. But states located in the east of the continent remain very dependent. Currently, Russia sends its gas to Europe via two routes, since the sabotage of Nord Stream in September 2022, in the Baltic Sea. The first is the TurkStream gas pipeline and its extension, Balkan Stream, under the Black Sea, to Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary.

The second route crosses Ukraine under a contract established in 2019 for five years between, on the one hand, the Ukrainian companies Naftogaz and, on the other hand, the Russian giant Gazprom, and it is the latter which must be cut at 1^is January 2025. The volume passing through this route amounted to 14.65 billion cubic meters in 2023, or just under half of Russia’s total gas exports to Europe, according to official figures.

Austria, which still imported 90% of its gas from Russia this summer, took the lead and ended its long-term relationship with Gazprom in December, turning the page after almost six decades on the grounds of “multiple contractual violations”. “If the Austrians solved the problem by terminating their contract, the Slovaks want to maintain it”explains to Agence France-Presse Andras Deak, expert at Ludovika University in Budapest. Prime Minister Robert Fico visited Moscow last weekend, with Volodymyr Zelensky accusing him of wanting “help Vladimir Putin earn money to finance the war”.

In Moldova, we are already preparing for power cuts. Despite significant diversification efforts since the start of the war in its neighbor, this former Soviet Republic still depends for 70% of its electricity on the Cuciurgan thermal power station, located in the separatist region of Transnistria and supplied with Russian gas. via Ukraine.

“Other transit routes exist, but it seems that Gazprom is not ready to honor its contractual obligations”recently lamented pro-European President Maia Sandu, denouncing “a blackmail of the darkness” of the Kremlin against a backdrop of fears of destabilization a few months before the legislative elections. In this tense context, a state of energy emergency has been declared and this country, which is among the poorest in Europe, will have to buy its electricity from neighboring Romania, at a higher price.

Hungary receives most of its Russian gas imports via TurkStream, and kyiv’s decision will only marginally affect it. Despite everything, the Prime Minister declared last week that the country did not want ” give up “ this route used for low volumes, in order to maintain “reasonable prices”and that negotiations were taking place with Moscow and kyiv.