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The middle class heavily impacted by fuel fluctuations

Since December 17, 2024, fuel prices have seen a slight reduction of 20 cents for diesel, while the price of gasoline remains unchanged after an increase at the start of the month. A movement which, although perceived by some as a favorable measure, does not seem to be sufficient to ease the burden on the middle class, already strongly impacted by the successive increases in previous months.

The oil industry, on the other hand, reacted in a disparate manner to this drop: some stations adjusted their prices quickly as early as Monday December 16, 2024 morning, while others waited until Tuesday December 17, 2024 to adjust their prices. This price management seems more conditioned by available stocks and the commercial strategies of distributors than by transparent factors which would benefit all citizens. For consumers, this unpredictability gives the impression of a chaotic dance where the rules of the game remain unclear and where every penny is scrutinized with particular attention. Indeed, the drop of 20 cents, although symbolic, comes after a period of tumultuous fluctuations. Since the summer of 2024, fuel prices have been strongly influenced by OPEC+ decisions and global geopolitical tensions. This group of major players, notably composed of Saudi Arabia and Russia, recently extended their production reduction commitments to stabilize world prices until March 2025.

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Morocco, dependent on oil imports to cover a large part of its energy needs, is particularly vulnerable to these fluctuations. If world prices continue to fluctuate according to decisions taken at the international level, the Moroccan citizen is directly exposed to their consequences. Increases in fuel prices have a ripple effect throughout the Moroccan economy, particularly affecting the transport sector, logistics, and ultimately, the cost of consumer products. However, the drop in prices seems to take longer to be felt throughout the value chain. This results in a continued erosion of the purchasing power of households, especially the middle class, whose incomes are disproportionately affected by these increases, while the decline does not benefit from the same speed of effect.

Service station managers, often accused of taking advantage of this situation, point out that price setting is largely beyond their control because in fact they are only performers in a system where prices are determined by distributors. Managers, during periods of increase, are forced to replenish their stocks at higher prices without their profit margins being improved. The system thus appears to be a dead end where neither the consumer nor the station operators emerge as winners. Faced with this volatility, the urgency of an energy transition is becoming more and more evident for Morocco. If the current drop in fuel prices could seem like a temporary relief, it above all highlights the country’s fragility in the face of dependence on global oil markets. This energy vulnerability, which affects both consumers and the economy as a whole, requires a strategic reorientation towards diversification of energy sources.

Morocco is committed to an ambitious energy transition, supported by major investments in renewable energies, notably solar and wind. These initiatives, which already occupy a significant place in national production, aim not only to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, but also to stimulate job creation and assert the Kingdom’s role as regional leader. Furthermore, the development of alternatives such as electric mobility and the exploitation of natural gas represents an opportunity to alleviate pressures on consumers while strengthening national energy resilience. Thus, the incessant variations in fuel prices highlight the urgency of a structuring energy reform and an accelerated transition towards alternative solutions.

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