Despite a tense political and economic context, the rating agency Standard & Poor's has decided to maintain the French sovereign debt rating at “AA-”, with a stable outlook. A decision which contrasts with recent downgrades by other agencies and underlines the government's budgetary efforts.
Budgetary stability welcomed, but under conditions
The announcement came on Friday evening, to everyone's surprise: Standard & Poor's (S&P) chose to maintain the French debt rating at “AA-”, with a stable outlook. This choice comes as several competing agencies, such as Fitch and Moody's, have recently lowered their assessment. In its press release, S&P justified its decision by banking on France's ability to respect European budgetary requirements in the medium term, despite delays in implementation.
Antoine Armand, Minister of the Economy, welcomed this “ trusted mark », while recognizing the risks linked to political instability. “ In the absence of a budget, debt financing costs could explode, affecting household consumption, business investment and the country's growth », he warned during a press briefing. Calling for collective responsibility, he recalled that the budget currently being debated in the Senate already includes improvements, in particular on the revaluation of small pensions.
This favorable decision by S&P contrasts with a series of worrying signals: a rising budget deficit, rising from 5.1% to 6.1% of GDP for 2024, and a debt which should reach its peak at 116.5% of GDP in 2027. Michel Barnier, Prime Minister, however reaffirmed his commitment to reducing the deficit “around 5%” thanks to a savings plan of 60 billion euros. But the concessions made to obtain political support make it difficult to achieve this objective.
Debt under increased surveillance
The financial markets continue to reflect a certain distrust: France's 10-year borrowing rate, often seen as a barometer of investor confidence, briefly surpassed Greece's this week. Although it returned to 2.9% after the S&P announcement, it reflects the persistent fragility of French public finances.
Despite this respite, the path towards lasting improvement in public accounts looks difficult. The executive will have to convince in a turbulent parliamentary climate, where each budgetary decision is closely scrutinized. The European Commission, for its part, validated the French budgetary trajectory, offering tacit support for the government's efforts.
However, as S&P pointed out, this stability will depend on France's ability to straighten its budgetary trajectory while easing political tensions. A delicate mission which remains essential to preserve the confidence of the markets and agencies.
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