The “Lex Trump” got into place

The session of Wednesday, November 13 did not give rise to major surges on the stock market. In Europe, it followed a severe purge of indices, struck by fears of a difficult future in a world governed by Trump Lex. In the United States, Wall Street experienced a second session of calm, with modest index variations: from -0.16% for the Nasdaq to +0.1% for the Dow Jones, including +0.02% for the S&P500. Not enough to break three legs of a Democratic duck. President-elect Donald Trump continued to distribute roles within his future administration, confirming the presence of profiles with strong ideas. He learned with delight during the day what had a good chance of happening: his camp has a majority in the House of Representatives. The Democrats are therefore drinking the chalice to the dregs since they leave the Republicans in control of the White House, the Senate, the House of Representatives and the Supreme Court.

The limitation of counter-power has naturally led the strategists of the large investment banks to burn their middle scenarios to concentrate on their extreme hypotheses, since Donald Trump now has a boulevard to deploy his policies.

What will be the future president’s relationship with the American central bank? Probably bad, since he will not wait long to resume his verbal jousting with Jerome Powell if the head of the Fed and his team are forced to deploy restrictive monetary policies to counter the inflationary risk lent to the initiatives planned by Donald Trump. The ultras of the Republican camp could also give voice to limit the power of the Federal Reserve, one of their old hobbyhorses. In the meantime, the market has raised the probability of a quarter-point rate cut from the Fed on December 18 from yesterday to today from 59% to 83%. The reason? The publication at 2:30 p.m. yesterday of October inflation, right in line with expectations in the United States. A form of relief because several economists had warned of a risk of a more marked resumption of price increases, which would have undermined hopes of monetary easing at the end of the year. However, the US 10-year yield remains high, a sign that the bond market remains vigilant about the evolution of inflation. The publication of the October producer price index at 2:30 p.m. will constitute a new test.

In the short term, the biggest impact of Donald Trump’s return to business is visible on exchange rates. The slide continues for the euro, the yen and the main currencies which are not overly manipulated. In Japan, the currency has returned close to the threshold that usually brings monetary authorities out of the woods, who cannot afford to let the yen fall too much. Strong variations in the dollar are also weighing on emerging economies.

Oil remains stable, torn between the prospect of seeing the United States pump like Shadocks (drill, baby, drill) and the efforts of OPEC+ to keep prices high. We learned last night that India has overtaken China as the main source of growth in oil demand in Asia. Oil which increasingly comes from the Commonwealth of Independent States (mainly Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan), which provided 43% of supply since the start of 2024. In 2021, the CIS supplied less than 2% of Indian needs. In the meantime, the war in Ukraine and the embargoes that followed disrupted flows.

On the corporate front, the game of musical chairs is confirmed at LVMH, with some changes in the upper echelons of the group. There are also results from Cisco, Deutsche Telekom, Alstom and Siemens AG, and medium-term plans presented by Thales and ASML.

In Asia Pacific, the Nikkei 225 fell for the third consecutive session, down 0.4%. For the Hang Seng in Hong Kong, this is the fourth session of decline in a row, bringing the liability to 7% since last Thursday. This time, mainland China fails to take the opposite view and also loses more than 1% during today’s session. South Korea, on the other hand, managed to gain 0.4%, like Australia. India is close to balance but could find itself with a sixth consecutive session of decline on its hands if it fails to make progress at the close. European leading indicators are no more inspired than in recent days: they are stagnating around balance, with a slight bearish bias around 8:00 a.m.

Today’s economic highlights

In the United States, the October producer price index and the latest weekly unemployment claims are expected at 2:30 p.m. The whole agenda here.

The main changes in recommendations

• Air France-KLM: JP Morgan maintains its recommendation to overweight with a price target reduced from 12 to 11.50 EUR.
• Alstom: Goldman Sachs maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target raised from 16 to 18 EUR. Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation with a price target raised from 21 to 22 EUR.
• DR. Martens: Goldman Sachs moves from sell to neutral with a price target reduced from 71 GBX to 64 GBX.
• Eiffage: Barclays maintains its recommendation to overweight with a price target reduced from 142 to 138 EUR.
• Jenoptik: Baader Helvea goes from accumulating to buying with a price target reduced from 35 to 29 EUR.
• M6 Métropole Télévision: Barclays maintains its recommendation to be underweight with a price target reduced from 13.50 to 11.50 EUR.
• Nestlé: HSBC maintains its purchase recommendation with a reduced price target of 101 to 95 CHF.
• SoftwareONE: JP Morgan maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from 15 to 8 CHF.
• Lem Holding: Stifel maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the price target from 1525 to 1100 CHF.
• Sanofi: Zacks maintains its neutral recommendation with a reduced price target of $58 to $53.
• Ströer: Barclays maintains its market weighting recommendation with a reduced price target from 64 to 55 EUR.
• TF1: Barclays maintains its market weighting recommendation and reduces the price target from 9.50 to 8.50 EUR.
• UBS Group: Zacks moves from neutral to outperform with a price target raised from 34 to 37 USD.
• UPM-Kymmene Oyj: Jefferies goes from hold to buy with a price target of 31.25 EUR.

In France

Important announcements (and less important… I should point out that the information is given immediately before the opening and does not prejudge the color of the shares during the session)

• Things are moving at LVMH: Maud Alvarez-Pereyre is appointed director of human resources from December 1, 2024, Cécile Cabanis will take over as financial director on December 1.^is February 2025, the date on which his predecessor Jean-marc Guyoni will take the reins of the wines and spirits branch.
• Thales presents its objectives for the period 2024-2028.
• ATR (Airbus, Leonardo) renounces a new model to concentrate on the existing range.
• The first A321XLR in commercial service, operated by Iberia, is equipped with LEAP-1A engines from CFM (Safran, GE Aerospace).
• Saint-Gobain is considering selling its automotive glass division, according to Bloomberg.
• Schneider Electric prepays its 2026 OCEANE bonds.
• The AMF exempts Vivendi from a takeover bid for Lagardère as part of its spin-off.
• Eiffage is targeting CEO net income of the same order as in 2023.
• Alstom exceeds expectations on 1^is half-year and confirms its annual outlook.
• Scor in the red in the 3rd quarter weighed down by the revision of its life and health reinsurance assumptions.
• Valneva and LimmaTech Vaccinate First Participant in Phase IIb Controlled Infection Trial of S4V2 Tetravalent Shigellosis Vaccine Candidate.
• Hydrogen Refueling Solutions claims the passage of 100 tonnes of hydrogen delivered by its large capacity stations.
• The main publications of the day : Claranova, Phaxiam… The rest here.

In the big world

Important (and not so important) announcements

D’Europe

• Italy sells 15% of Banca Monte dei Paschi, Banco BPM acquires 5%. Delfin aurait pris 3.5%.
• Merck KGaA’s third-quarter profits rise faster than expected.
• Saipem signs a $1.9 billion contract with TotalEnergies in Suriname.
• ASML announces that its turnover will reach 44 to 60 billion euros by 2030.
• DE Shaw is taking a billion-dollar short position in Bayer, according to a regulatory filing.
• Deutsche Telekom raises its forecasts for 2024.
• K+S cuts its profit forecast.
• EON maintains its annual objectives and increases its investments.
• Tensions between Ben & Jerry’s and its parent company Unilever over support for Gaza.
• SMA Solar cuts 1,100 jobs and revises its outlook downwards.
• Siemens AG shows slight operational growth but the digital division continues to slow down.
• Baywa announces a drop in its turnover over nine months.
• Stadler Rail abandons its 2024 targets.
• Telefonica will receive $380 million in settlement of a dispute with the Colombian government.
• Kuehne und Nagel acquires the American IMC Logistics.
• Influential shareholders are calling for Smith & Nephew to be split up, according to the FT.
• Embracer sells Easybrain to Miniclip for $1.2 billion.
• Boohoo is suffering a fall in first-half profits due to lower consumer spending and investment costs.
• OMV wins more than $243 million in arbitration award over irregular deliveries of German gas from Gazprom.
• Telecom Italia says its profit and debt targets are on track following the sale of its network.
• The main publications of the day : Siemens AG, Deutsche Telekom, Merck KGaA, 3i Group, EON SE, Swiss Re, Hapag-Lloyd, CVC Capital Partners, Swiss Life Holding, Talanx AG, Aviva…

From North America

From Asia Pacific and beyond

The rest of the global publications calendar here.

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