Eight of the ten most turbulent routes start or end in the same country.
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In 2024, it seems like we’ve heard about turbulence more than ever.
Many cases of injuries on turbulent flights have made headlines, including on a Singapore Airlines flight where a passenger sadly died. This is the first time since 1997 that a person has been killed on a flight due to turbulence.
Data from the United States Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) indicates that between 2009 and 2023, 37 passengers and 146 crew members were seriously injured due to turbulencewho remain the leading cause of injuries on a commercial flight.
Turbulence can occur anywhere, but certain characteristics can make it more common. So where are the most turbulent roads in Europeand how do they compare to the rest of the world?
The most turbulent air routes in Europe
A new study carried out by the Turbli website, specializing in turbulence monitoring, has highlighted European routes most likely to be affected by turbulence. Eight of the ten most turbulent routes begin or end in Suissewhile others fly over or around the Alpes.
To quantify the probability of turbulence, Turbli uses the eddy dissipation rate (EDR). This is a measurement of atmospheric turbulence independent of the characteristics of the aircraft. It is the standard measure of aeronautical turbulence used by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
In total, the most turbulent roads in Europe in 2024 are as follows:
- Nice – Geneva : EDR 16.07
- Nice – Zurich : 15.49
- Milan – Zurich: 15.41
- Milan – Lyon : 15,37
- Nice – Basel: 15.33
- Geneva – Zurich: 15.05
- Nice – Lyon : 14.99
- Geneva – Venice: 14.78
- Lyon – Zurich : 14.74
- Venice – Zurich: 14.67
According to Turbli, anything below an EDR of 20 (i.e. all flights listed above) is considered “light”, and those between 20 and 40 are moderate. No roads in the world have been rated as strong (40-60) or extreme (80-100) on an average annual basis, although some individual incidents may have crossed these thresholds.
However, extreme turbulence is rare in Europe, so even the most turbulent roads are unlikely to experience the devastating incidents of recent months.
For comparison, the world’s most turbulent roads are all in South America, where they cross the Andes mountain range. The most turbulent route, with an EDR of 24.68, is the one that connects Mendoza to Santiago, followed by Cordoba to Santiago and Mendoza to Salta.
Why is turbulence more common near mountains?
In general, flights over or near mountains can cause turbulence, primarily due to the way the wind interacts with the terrain.
-When winds hit a mountainous area, they can be forced to rise above the peaks, causing updrafts. These updrafts can then encounter a stable air barrier aloft, which pulls them back toward the ground and creates a downdraft.
High peaks can also create what are called “mountain waves”, caused by the disruption of horizontal air flow. These oscillations on the leeward side of high terrain can cause vertical currents of up to 2,000 ft/min in force, making the skies quite bumpy.
These disturbances in air currents can actually disrupt the flight path of an aircraftcausing it to rise, fall or bounce up and down as it passes.
Temperature and humidity also play a role in turbulence intensity. The warmer and more humid the air, the greater the turbulence, which explains why roads over the Andes are often more difficult.
Should we be worried about turbulence and is climate change making it worse?
THE planes modern are designed to withstand the most extreme turbulence without suffering damage. The same is not true for passengers.
In all the turbulence we have seen in 2024, passengers who were securely strapped into their seats were able to leave the plane unscathed. Unrestrained passengers and crew suffered the most serious injuries.
Experts agree that turbulence worsens due to climate change. Specifically, higher temperature extremes and stronger, more unpredictable storms mean that extreme turbulence is likely to become more frequent. The University of Reading in the United Kingdom predicts that by 2050, turbulence will be twice as frequent.
The aviation industry spares no effort to ensure passenger safety. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) launched its Turbulence Aware platform in 2018 and now has more than 25 airlines contributing and consuming data across more than 2,600 aircraft. Data from the platform is used in cockpit instruments and flight planning software to better predict and avoid turbulence.
In addition to this data, pilots rely on sophisticated weather radar systems on board planes to detect and avoid areas of turbulence. They also inform each other in real time of turbulence encountered on a route.
Even if the airlines and aviation bodies play their part in helping flights avoid turbulence, it can still be incredibly difficult to identify and avoid turbulent air. In particular, clear-air turbulence, which has no visual clues to its presence, is almost impossible to identify and avoid.
According to the National Transportation Safety Bureau (NTSB), in 28% of turbulence-related incidents, the crew was not warned that they were about to encounter problems.
This is why passengers concerned about turbulence must always wear their seat belt when they are on board a plane.