After three years of running behind galloping inflation, the salary increase forecasts recorded for 2025 are indicative of a change in the economic context for businesses.
This is what the Salary Budget Planning study published Thursday January 9 by the consulting firm WTW reveals, based on responses from 1,022 companies in France belonging to various sectors (telecom technologies, industry, distribution, transport, construction, etc.). ).
While the season is for mandatory annual negotiations (NAO), almost half of the companies surveyed (46%) say that their increase budget has been revised downwards compared to 2024. What they explain first by falling inflation expectations, concern over cost management, and “an anticipated recession or more modest financial results than expected”.
“But the drop in budgets remains relative”, insists Khalil Ait-Mouloud, director of the remuneration survey activity at WTW. Thus, the median increase (half of the companies plan more, the other half plan less) amounts to + 3.5% for 2025, compared to + 3.8% for this same study in 2024, while the Bank of France forecasts inflation below 2% in 2025. “We must remember that between 2010 and 2020, a more stable economic period, the median was around + 2.5%”, contextualizes Mr. Ait-Mouloud.
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