THE TREND
(Boursier.com) — The Parisian session begins with a slight decline, as expected (-0.10% to 7,485 points for the CAC 40). A break after 3 sessions in the green over the first 4 of 2025. At the close yesterday, the CAC 40 had increased by 1.47% since January 1. Today’s session promises to be packed with macroeconomic publications, notably the ADP report on employment in the United States at the start of the afternoon as well as unemployment claims. After the Paris close, we will read the Fed Minutes.
Yesterday, the US Department of Labor report showed a larger than expected increase in the number of job openings in November. According to separate data, activity in the services sector in the United States accelerated in December, although input prices rose to a nearly two-year peak.
WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange ended lower on Tuesday after the publication of solid economic data fueling fears that a rebound in inflation could push the American Federal Reserve to slow the pace of its monetary easing. The Dow Jones index lost 0.42%, or 178.20 points, to 42,528.36 points. The broader S&P-500 lost 66.35 points, or 1.11%, to 5,909.03 points.
ECO AND CURRENCIES
Household confidence deteriorated again in December. At 89, the indicator which summarizes it, calculated by INSEE, drops by one point and remains below its long-term average (100 between January 1987 and December 2024). The consensus was counting on this decline to 89.
Industrial orders in Germany fell by 5.4% in November compared to the previous month in seasonally and calendar-adjusted data, the Federal Statistical Office said on Wednesday.
France’s trade deficit stood at 7.085 billion euros at the end of October, according to data published Friday by French Customs.
UNITED STATES :
– ADP report on American private employment. (2:15 p.m.)
– Weekly unemployment registrations. (2:30 p.m.)
– Minutes du FOMC. (20h00)
– Consumer credit. (9:00 p.m.)
Europe :
– Eurozone Business Climate Index. (11:00 a.m.)
– Eurozone economic confidence index. (11:00 a.m.)
– Final consumer confidence index in the euro zone. (11:00 a.m.)
– Euro zone industrial confidence index. (11:00 a.m.)
– Euro zone producer price index. (11:00 a.m.)
– Eurozone services confidence index. (11:00 a.m.)
The euro/dollar parity reached $1.0356 this morning. A barrel of Brent is trading at $77.50. An ounce of gold sells for $2,651.
RISING VALUES
Vallourec (+3.40% to 17.60 Euros) announces having achieved, one year in advance, its objective of zero net debt. Based on preliminary closing estimates, Vallourec reduced its net debt by just over €240 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. This is the ninth consecutive quarter of deleveraging for Vallourec. Vallourec’s gross operating income for the 2024 financial year is expected to be in the range of 800 to 850 million euros, as indicated in the press release of the results for the third quarter and first nine months of 2024. cash flow in the fourth quarter benefited from the receipt of 155 million euros from the sale of the majority of the Rath site, and from capital expenditure and capital requirements turnover lower than previously announced. Vallourec confirms that 80% to 100% of cash flows generated in the second half of 2024 will be eligible for a return to shareholders. Vallourec will publish its results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 on February 27.
Exosens (+5.45% to 21.68 Euros) today publishes its unaudited annual 2024 estimated revenue and adjusted EBITDA, its forecasts for the year 2025, as well as its outlook. Its estimates for 2024 appear higher than the outlook announced during the IPO. Based on estimated unaudited figures, Exosens forecasts for the 2024 financial year: a total turnover of between 390 and 395 million euros, i.e. growth of more than 34% compared to 2023; an adjusted EBITDA between 116 and 118 million euros, i.e. an adjusted EBITDA margin of around 30%. The Group also expects strong performance for 2025, with revenue growth in the high 15-20% range and adjusted EBITDA growth in the low 20-25% range compared to 2024. “Market demand is greater than expected,” welcomes Exosens, as evidenced by the approval, by the German parliament on December 18, 2024, of the third option of the night vision contract. OCCAR, which provides for the delivery of 25,000 binoculars equipped with Exosens intensifier tubes (this contract will mainly be delivered between 2025 and 2026, with the majority of deliveries expected in 2026). On this basis, the Group expects that the adjusted EBITDA will record a CAGR for the period 2024-2026 at the high end of the 15-20% range and that the ratio of cash conversion i.e. in a range of 75 to 80% for the same period. Furthermore, Exosens intends to continue its strategy of targeted acquisitions at a pace consistent with the historical trend, and aims to gradually balance the distribution of turnover between the Amplification and Detection & Imaging segments, while maintaining a net financial debt ratio. /adjusted EBITDA of approximately 2x.
Dassault Aviation (+2.30% at 201 Euros) indicates that 21 Rafale (14 France, 7 Export) have been delivered, for a forecast of 20 (13 Rafale, including 11 in France, and 2 Export delivered in 2023. Also, 31 Falcon were delivered, for a forecast of 35 (26 Falcons delivered in 2023). In terms of orders, 30 Rafale Exports have been ordered compared to 60 Rafales in 2023, including 42 in France, and 18 for Export. In addition, 26 Falcons have been ordered (23 Falcons in 2023). As of December 31, 2024, the order book shows: 220 Rafale (164 Export, 56 France) versus 211 Rafale as of December 31, 2023, 79 Falcon versus 84 Falcon as of December 31, 2023.
Pluxee (+9.85% to 9.65 Euros) reveals a total turnover of organic growth of +13.2% which stands at 289 million in the first quarter of the 2025 financial year, “constituting a solid basis for deliver double-digit growth over the fiscal year,” the group welcomes. Operating revenue, up organically by +12.1%, amounted to €249 million, driven by the Employee Benefits activity, which maintained its growth trajectory, up organically by +14 .9%. “Commercial momentum remained favorable in the first quarter, fueled by a solid net retention rate and a pipeline development company well positioned to achieve annual objectives”, comments Pluxee. The Group reiterates its strategic and financial objectives for the 2025 and 2026 financial years.
FALLING VALUES
Voltalia (-1.10% to 7.31 Euros) will have a total capacity of around 3.3 gigawatts (3,256 megawatts) at the end of 2024, including more than 2.5 gigawatts (2,514 megawatts) in operation. Voltalia recalls having won new electricity sales contracts in 2024 for a total of 637 megawatts, of which 301 megawatts are already under construction and the rest is to be built or sold from 2025.
Trigano (-7.80% to 114.70 Euros) shows a drop in its turnover in the first quarter of 17.4% compared to last year to 769.8 ME, compared to 931.6 ME a year earlier early. In order to allow a rapid return to normative stock levels, Trigano has reduced its motorhome production and adapted the timing of its deliveries. The corresponding drop in turnover is 18.0%. Sales of accessories for leisure vehicles are stable (-1.6%), while those of caravans (-43.7%) were affected by the reluctance of distributors in a low season period. The improvement in deliveries of mobile homes (+6.8%) in the first quarter does not indicate a trend for the year.
TURNOVER/RESULTS
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THE LATEST “RECOS” FROM ANALYSTS…
– JP Morgan recommends Danone for purchase with a target price of 80 Euros.
– Jefferies degrades Danone to ‘underperform’ with a target reduced from 66 to 56 euros.
– Nordea goes to ‘purchase’ on Nokia aiming for 5.2 euros.
– Jefferies revalorise Accor from 48 to 52 euros (‘purchase’).
– Jefferies revalorise Edenred from 28.3 to 29.8 euros (‘keep’).
– Jefferies lowers the sight on Sodexo from 80 to 78 euros (‘keep’).
– Goldman Sachs adjusts the slider to JCDecaux from 24.4 to 25.5 euros (‘purchase’).
MARKET INFO
SpineGuard: concludes a €1 million bond financing
IN BRIEF
Phaxiam Therapeutics takes stock of data from patients treated under compassionate status in Europe
Arverne Group: framework agreement between Lithium de France and SLB
E-Pango warns of a disinformation operation
Solutions 30: two contracts in electric vehicle charging in Poland
Waga and Valtom launch a 3.5 ME project in Europe
