FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell interest rate announcement at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City
by Claude Chendjou
Wall Street, which closed the last session of 2024 in the red, is expected to rebound on Thursday at the opening for the first session of 2025, while the main European stock exchanges, which ended Tuesday on a positive note, are hesitant to mid-session.
The trend on the markets is greatly influenced by low volumes, with many operators still on holiday, while certain stock exchanges such as Switzerland, Japan and New Zealand remained closed this Thursday. New York index futures signal Wall Street opening up 0.83% for the Dow Jones, 0.97% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 and 1.19% for the Nasdaq. In Paris, the CAC 40 lost 0.62% to 7,335.04 points around 12:25 GMT after starting in the green. In Frankfurt, the Dax gained 0.11%. In London, the FTSE, rich in stocks specializing in hydrocarbons, advanced 0.31%.
The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index fell by 0.01% and the eurozone’s EuroStoxx 50 by 0.32%. The Stoxx 600 fell by 0.02%, mainly penalized by the automobile (-1.15%) and banking (-1.44%) sectors, while the oil and gas sector (+1. 34%) offers support.
According to the Automotive Industry Platform (PFA), the French automobile market, second in continental Europe, risks experiencing a sixth year of historically low sales in 2025.
In today’s statistics, the final S&P Global/HCOB PMI showed that euro zone industrial sector activity slowed at a faster pace than previously estimated, to 45.1 in December from 45.2 .
In the United States, the ISM manufacturing index for the month of December will be published on Friday, while weekly figures for unemployment claims are expected this Thursday at 1:30 p.m. GMT. These statistics are the only ones of importance before the real recovery of the financial markets next week after an overall positive year 2024 for most of the major indices in the world.
Wall Street’s benchmark index, the S&P 500, recorded its best two-year performance in 2024 since 1997-1998. Traders expect the S&P 500 to reach levels between 6,000 and 7,000 points this year, compared to Tuesday’s close of 5,881 points.
VALUES TO FOLLOW AT WALL STREET
“Tech” giants like Meta, Amazon, Nvidia and Broadcom are sought after in pre-market trading, gaining 0.8% to 1.9% for the first session of the new year.
VALUES IN EUROPE Geox, the Italian shoe and clothing manufacturer, fell 6.59% after the presentation of its industrial plan for 2025-2029.
Vestas Wind Systems jumped 5.17% as the Danish wind turbine manufacturer announced that it had received new orders in Italy.
RATES Euro zone bond yields fall slightly after monthly PMI data fell short of expectations, while business loan growth in the bloc slowed in November.
The ten-year German Bund yield, benchmark for the euro zone, fell 4.2 basis points (bp) to 2.322%. It reached a six-week high on Friday, at 2.405%, before falling on Monday.
That of Treasury bills of the same maturity fell by 4.8 basis points, to 4.528%.
FOREIGN EXCHANGES The US dollar rises, 0.19% against a basket of benchmark currencies, after its solid gains in 2024 as the market focuses on Donald Trump’s arrival in power and his policies which should not only stimulate growth, but also increase pressure on prices.
The euro fell 0.23% to $1.0329 as traders anticipated deeper interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) in 2025. An easing of 113 basis points is expected. forecast by the markets for the ECB this year compared to a cut of 42 basis points for the American Federal Reserve (Fed).
OIL
Oil prices are rising amid optimism for the Chinese economy and fuel demand following Chinese President Xi Jinping’s pledge to implement more proactive economic policies in 2025.
Brent rose 1.38% to $75.67 per barrel and American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) rose 1.42% to $72.74.
MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATOR ON THE AGENDA FOR JANUARY 2:
COUNTRY GMT INDICATOR PERIOD PREVIOUS CONSENSUS
USA 1:30 p.m. Weekly registrations for the week to 28 222,000 219,000
unemployment December
(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Blandine Hénault)
