THE inflationary pressures should continue to dissipate Morocco. After a downward revision of forecasts, l’inflation is now expected at 2.4% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. Core inflation, which excludes volatile elements and offers a refined view of price developments, would stabilize on average below the bar. 2% over the period 2025-2026, i.e. 50 basis points (PBS) below the current key rate. This decline in inflationary pressures is also supported by the fall in the prices of energy products internationally. The average price of Brent is expected at $74 per barrel in 2025, compared to nearly $80 in 2024, thanks to abundant oil supply and a deceleration in global growth.
An environment favorable to lower rates
On the international level, the accommodating policy of major central banks strengthens Bank Al-Maghrib’s room for maneuver. There European Central Bank (ECB) should reduce its key rate by 50 PBS, while the US Federal Reserve (Fed) envisages a drop of 100 PBS in 2025. This situation would offer Morocco an opportunity to maintain a stable anchoring of the dirham while reducing the cost of financing the economy.
Support for investment dynamics
The reduction in the key rate aims to stimulate investmentessential to meet the structural challenges facing Morocco. Among these challenges are the reconstruction post-earthquake in the region from Al Haouzthe implementation of social reforms of New Development Modelthe energy transition and the organization of 2030 World Cup. These projects will require public investments estimated at 1,700 billion dirhams between 2025 and 2030which is the equivalent of 1.2 times the GDP national.
In addition, experts estimate that the cumulative reduction of 50 PBS in the key rate in 2024 has already enabled the Treasure to achieve an annual saving of 620 million dirhams on interest charges. A further reduction in 2025 could amplify this effect, while preserving budget ratios future.
Economic growth on the rebound
Under the hypothesis of a agricultural campaign normative, with cereal production around 50 million quintals in 2025 compared to only 31 million in 2024, economic growth should be established at 3.9% in 2025, after 2.6% in 2024. This rebound reflects the desire of monetary and government authorities to support sustainable and inclusive development, in a context where price stability is once again at the center of priorities.
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