November is often between two waters, after a very unfavorable month of October and before a favorable month of December, thanks to end-of-year bonuses and New Years.
Savers deposited 560 million euros more than they withdrew from their Livret A and LDDS accounts in November, a sign of normalization before a probable rate cut at the start of 2025. This net inflow (balance of deposits and withdrawals) is comparable to that of November 2019, the last faithful base before exceptional years for regulated savings, linked to confinements then to clear increases in yield.
In detail, the Livrets A were expanded by 400 million euros last month, reaching the sum of 427.2 billion euros, and the Livrets de développement durable et solidaire (LDDS), by 160 million euros. euros, to reach 155.2 billion euros, according to data published Monday by the Caisse des Dépôts (CDC). November is often between two waters, after a very unfavorable month of October – the French paying property tax, possible regularizations of their income tax and the last back-to-school expenses – and before a favorable month of December , thanks to end-of-year bonuses and New Years.
The Livret A and LDDS accounts have grown by 17.5 billion euros since the start of the year, a sum again comparable to 2019. The Livret d'épargne populaire (LEP), reserved for modest savers, has as for it inflated by 340 million euros last month. Its outstanding amount reached a new record at the end of November, at 78.1 billion euros.
Towards a rate “around 2.5%” on February 1
The Livret A rate, also valid for the LDDS, is set according to the increase in prices and interbank rates – the rates at which banks exchange money in the short term – over the last six months. Today at 3%, this rate is revised twice a year, mid-January (for application on February 1st) and mid-July (for application on August 1st). The calculation formula is far from being systematically applied and has even been the subject of frequent exceptions in recent years.
The rate expected on February 1 will be “around 2.5%”, explained on October 31 the general director of the Caisse des Dépôts Eric Lombard, or even a little below, at 2.4%, according to the latest available data. The LEP rate should continue its slow decline: from 6.1% between February and July 2023, it rose to 6% between August 2023 and January 2024, then to 5% between February and July 2024 and 4% until January 2025. It corresponds to the highest figure between the average inflation observed over the last six months and the Livret A rate increased by 0.5%. It could therefore potentially settle at 2.9% from February 1.
Interests above 20 billion euros by adding LEP
An eminently political subject, regulated savings readily invites decision-makers to make promises that are not always kept. The freezing of the Livret A rate at 3% over 18 months, from August 1, 2023 to January 31, 2025, should for example benefit the saver, according to the governor of the Banque de France François Villeroy de Galhau and the Minister of Finance. Economy of then Bruno Le Maire.
However, if the formula had been strictly applied, the rate would have been systematically higher, and even above 4% in the second half of 2023. Enough to deprive savers of more than 6.5 billion euros of interest in 2023 and 2024. Interest, distributed between the Caisse des Dépôts and the banks, should however reach a record, exceeding 17 billion euros for Livrets A and LDDS alone, and even 20 billion by adding LEP.
The governor had also set a target of 12.5 million LEP holders by the summer of 2024. The target was missed, with 11.7 million at the end of September, according to the Banque de France, a number however increasing sharply for two years. Eric Lombard had finally anticipated a net collection of more than 20 billion euros for the Livret A and the LDDS by the end of the year. It will take a well-above-average December to reach this mark.
