Global demand for coal reaches a new record in 2024, the hottest year on record, and only the rise of renewable energies should help stabilize it until 2027, reports the International Energy Agency (IEA) in his report entitled “Global coal demand is set to plateau through 2027“. At first glance, the title of this report reveals that the total amount of coal demanded and consumed worldwide is expected to remain relatively stable and not increase significantly until 2027.
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South Africa and Morocco will be, in 2024, the two largest consumers of coal on the African continent. This is the other information to remember from this recent report. “By 2024, we forecast that coal consumption in Africa will have increased by 6 million tonnes (Mt) to a total of 191 Mt, mainly driven by South Africa», Indicates the IEA.
South Africa, continental coal juggernaut
With a consumption of 165 Mt in 2024, South Africa alone represents 86% of total coal consumption in Africa in 2023 and is expected to increase its consumption to 165 Mt in 2024.A slight improvement in economic activity and a reduction in load shedding helped increase coal demand“, explains the report.
Coal is mainly used in electricity production in South Africa. Despite a planned increase of more than 50% in nuclear generation and a doubling of renewable generation, the strong growth in electricity demand in the country is expected to create space for an additional 14 Terawatt-hour (TWh) of production. coal-fired electricity in South Africa over the next three years.
The country continues to operate three coal-fired power plants with a capacity of 4.5 Gigawatt (GW) which were previously scheduled to be closed. The lifespan of these three plants will be extended until 2030. As a result, the IEA projects that South Africa’s coal consumption for electricity generation will increase to 124 Mt by 2027.
Morocco, second consumer with 9.7 Mt
Far behind South Africa, Morocco is positioned as the second largest coal consumer on the continent in 2024 with around 9.7 million tonnes (Mt). This volume, however, represents a decline of 3.3% compared to the 10 Mt consumed in 2023.
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Unlike South Africa which uses coal for both electricity production and many other industrial uses, Morocco concentrates its coal consumption almost exclusively in the electricity production sector according to the IEA.
Indeed, Morocco has several large coal-fired thermal power plants which provide a relatively large share of the electricity produced in the country. The main ones are the Jorf Lasfar power plant (2,056 MW). The plant, owned by Taqa Morocco, a subsidiary of the Abu Dhabi National Energy Company, was commissioned in several phases, with units 5 and 6 added in 2014. The Safi plant (1,386 MW). This plant was commissioned in 2017; or the Nador power plant with a capacity of 1,320 MW (2 units at 660 MW each).
The use of coal, entirely imported, allows Morocco to diversify its energy mix in addition to hydroelectric dams and new renewable energy capacities (solar, wind) which are booming.
However, in the context of the fight against global warming, the Moroccan government has the ambition to gradually reduce the share of coal in the national electricity mix in the future. Morocco’s 2025 finance bill also provides for an increase from 6.48 to 12.48 DH/100kg in the domestic consumption tax (TIC) on coal used for electricity production.
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Remember that the coal used in power plants is hard coal, a combustible sedimentary rock rich in carbon, formed by the partial decomposition of plant matter under the effect of pressure and heat over several million years. It is a fossil fuel, like oil and natural gas.
In total, Africa will represent only 2.17% of global coal consumption in 2024, far behind Asia-Pacific (82.61%) and Europe (5.81%). According to IEA forecasts, by 2027 Africa should represent 2.29% of global coal consumption, still far behind Asia-Pacific (84.1%) and Europe (4 .72%).
African consumption up 3.1% in 2024
If African coal consumption increased by 3.1% in 2024 compared to 2023, driven by South Africa, the IEA forecasts a slowdown in this growth to 2% per year on average over 2024-2027. “Despite an increase of more than 50% in nuclear production and a doubling of renewable generation, the strong growth in electricity demand is expected to generate a surplus of 14 TWh for coal-fired generation in South Africa by 2027”, according to the report.
South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe, leading producers
On the production side, South Africa is by far the leading African producer in 2024 with 234 Mt, up 0.8% over one year. Follows Mozambique, and Zimbabwe.
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For the period 2024 to 2027, the International Energy Agency estimates that most African countries other than South Africa will maintain their current coal production levels, with a slight increase in Ethiopia due to the announcement of a new coal mine in Dawozone. However, the increase in steel production should boost coal production in Mozambique and Zimbabwe, respectively 2nd and 3rd African producers of this fossil fuel.
«In Mozambique, the Benga coking coal mine owned by Indian company Steel Authority of India is expected to more than triple its current production of 1.3 Mt per year in the coming years», Indicates the IEA, which also recalls various mining and port infrastructure projects in these producing countries. “ In addition, the Mvuma steel plant in Zimbabwe, built by Chinese companies, came into operation in 2024 with an annual steel production of 0.6 Mt during the first phase and a target of 5 Mtpa in the future, which should lead to an increase in coal production. »
Elsewhere in the world
The report also provides a geopolitical and economic overview of the global coal market, marked by the continued decline in demand in Europe and North America despite a slowdown in coal power plant closures. He underlines the weight of China, responsible for 30% of global demand, and India, whose strong growth makes it the second largest global consumer.
Australia and Russia, large historical exporters, are seeing their production gradually compete with Indonesia and Mongolia. According to the IEA, over the forecast period, imports of metalized coal, of which Australia is by far the largest exporter, are expected to decline. Additionally, Mongolia became the second largest coal exporter in 2024, reducing China’s appetite for Australian exports.
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Australian domestic demand for thermal coal and lignite is expected to continue to decline. Against this backdrop, we estimate that Australian metallized coal production will decline by 9 Mt to a total of 153 Mt by 2027 and that thermal coal and lignite production will decline by 25 Mt to a total of 270 Mt. Thus, the coal exports of these historic heavyweights now face serious competition from the growing power of Indonesia and Mongolia.
The IEA finally forecasts a price level for thermal coal of around 120-140 dollars per tonne in 2024 depending on the regions of import, a level much higher than the pre-pandemic years.
The two main consumers of coal in Africa
| Pays | Consumption volume in 2024 (in million tonnes) | Share in Africa’s overall consumption (in %) | Share in the world’s overall consumption (in %) | Rang |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 165 | 86,38 | 1,88 | 1er |
| Morocco | 9,7 | 5,07 | 0,11 | 2nd |
Source : AIE.
