Inflation in Morocco is expected to decline to 0.8% in the fourth quarter (Q4) 2024, compared to 1.3% in the previous quarter, according to recent forecasts from Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM). This decline is mainly attributable to the marked drop in the prices of fuels and lubricants, which are expected to fall from 2.8% to 12.4%, in line with the downward trend in international prices of petroleum products, specifies the Central Bank in its latest report on monetary policy.
At the same time, the prices of food products with volatile prices should also show a slight decline. They are expected to fall by 0.6% year-on-year in Q4-2024, after an average decrease of 1.1% in the previous quarter. This development takes into account data for the month of October, trends observed on wholesale markets and seasonal effects on these products.
Conversely, the underlying inflation indicator, which excludes volatile and regulated prices, would show an acceleration. It should stand at 2.3% in Q4-2024, compared to 2.1% observed in the third quarter, reflecting persistent pressure on the other components of the consumer price index.
Finally, regarding regulated prices, no significant change is expected in the absence of new government decisions. They should therefore remain stable at 2%, a level almost unchanged compared to the third quarter of 2024.
M.Ba.
Business
