Cantonal situation –
The Geneva economy is expected to grow by 2% in 2025
The cantonal economy appears resilient, but remains concentrated around key sectors, making it more vulnerable to global upheavals, notes the Banque Cantonale de Genève.
Published today at 3:55 p.m.
BCGE remains optimistic for the Geneva economy, despite the international context.
LAURENT GUIRAUD
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According to the latest forecasts from the Banque Cantonale de Genève (BCGE), Geneva’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to increase by 2% in 2025, driven mainly by pharmaceuticals and services. However, this growth masks a less homogeneous reality.
“The manufacturing sectors remain under pressure, with the notable exception of pharma, which continues to progress,” underlines Valérie Lemaigre, head of analyzes at BCGE during the presentation of its traditional economic outlook for 2025.
Beware of international tensions
Global geopolitical fragmentation is at the heart of the risks identified for the local economy. “The exports that we lost to Europe, we regained to the United States. This is not specific to Switzerland, but it reflects a shift in trade on a global scale,” explained Valérie Lemaigre.
In addition, the geography of raw material producers – often located in unstable regions – is also a source of concern, as is the “gloomy international context”.
Despite these elements of uncertainty, the fundamentals of the Geneva and Swiss economies remain solid, reassures BCGE. Companies boast healthy profit margins and full order books. “It is not a recessionary context, nor a dramatic one, but a very volatile and sensitive environment. It is essential to diversify to reduce this volatility,” advised Valérie Lemaigre.
“Moderately positive” outlook
In conclusion, BCGE adopts a “moderately positive” tone for 2025, while calling for remaining vigilant in the face of geopolitical risks and the evolution of commodity prices, an increase in which could trigger inflation.
“Geneva is pharma, watchmaking, raw materials and financial services. This high concentration is a source of tension. It does not constitute an insurmountable problem, but it makes us more vulnerable to external shocks,” concluded Nicolas Krügel, director of BCGE since last March.
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