Tokyo has set itself a titanic challenge: from here 2040THE renewable energies will have to become the primary source of electricity from Japan. The Japanese government, marked by the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, is proposing an ambitious project to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels and reach the carbon neutrality by 2050. But at what cost? Between pragmatism and utopia, the archipelago, poor in natural resources, is banking on a energy mix combining solar, wind and nuclear power.
An inevitable renewable transition: what ambitions for 2040?
The Japanese government has announced that renewable energy should represent 40 to 50% of electricity produced by 2040. This constitutes a significant jump compared to 23% recorded in 2023 and even the objective of 38% set for 2030. This increase in power will be driven in particular by technologies such as solar and wind power.
Why such a change?
Tokyo is facing several major challenges:
- Natural disasters (earthquakes and tsunamis).
- Dependence on imported fossil fuels (70% of electricity still comes from thermal power).
- Geopolitical issues which weaken energy supplies, in particular because of the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East.
Table of Japan Energy Objectives 2023 and 2030 :
| Year | Renewable energies (%) | Fossil fuels (%) | Nuclear (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23% | 70% | 8,5% |
| 2030 | 38% | 42% (hydrogen included) | 20% |
Nuclear power: an essential solution despite Fukushima?
After Fukushima, nuclear power almost disappeared from Japan's energy mix. The shock was such that all the power plants were closed, plunging the country into a energy crisis unprecedented. Today, Tokyo no longer hides its pragmatism: to make the transition a success, the atom will once again become a priority.
- All existing reactors will be in service by 2040.
- The government does not rule out building new nuclear reactors.
- The objective: to provide 20% electricity thanks to nuclear power by 2040, i.e. double from the current 8.5%.
A controversial choice, obviously. Memories of Fukushima remain vivid, and some regions strongly oppose to this reopening of the nuclear park. However, Tokyo insists: without nuclear power, the stability of energy supply remains out of reach.
The technological challenge: renewables in the face of growing demand
Behind this renewable ambition lies a worrying paradox: the demand for electricity will explode. For what ? The rise ofartificial intelligence and the semiconductor production will require gigantic electrical resources. The government plans a increase of 10 to 20% of electricity production by 2040. However, Japan remains devoid of natural resources.
This raises a fundamental question: is the country really capable of ensuring energy self-sufficiency thanks to renewables and nuclear power? The criticisms are already raining down. Maximize wind and solar power? This forgets the low availability of land in a mountainous and densely populated country. Reduce thermal to 30-40%? This seems unachievable without massive support for nuclear power.
An ambitious and realistic energy strategy?
Japan faces a monumental challenge. Its objective of an energy mix 50% renewable et 20% nuclear is ambitious, but based on a frantic race against time. Pragmatism prevailed over ideology: despite the risks, the atom remains the only credible way to ensure energy security.
But the question remains: will Tokyo be able to convince a population still traumatized by Fukushima? In a world of climate and geopolitical crises, Japan is walking a tightrope. One thing is certain: the clock is ticking, and the archipelago no longer has the luxury of hesitation.
