In an interview with “Figaro” on Thursday, November 28, the Prime Minister announced that he would return to a provision of the 2025 finance bill rejected by a large majority in both the Assembly and the Senate. In “Le Monde”, the head of the RN deputies sets out other demands and still threatens to vote for censure.
A weakening to avoid the overthrow of the government? Michel Barnier announced this Thursday, November 28 in an interview with Figaro that it would not increase electricity taxes as much as initially planned, compared to the level planned in the draft budget for 2025. Widely rejected on all benches of the Assembly and the Senate, the provision was also in the viewfinder of the National Rally, which has made it one of its red lines so as not to censor the government.
“I have decided not to increase taxes on electricity in the 2025 finance bill”, “this will allow a reduction in electricity prices of 14%, which will therefore go well beyond the reduction of 9% initially planned”, affirms the Prime Minister in extracts from a daily interview. “Whether it was in my majority or the opposition leaders that I received: almost all of them asked me to evolve,” he justifies, while his government is exposed to censorship if 49.3 is used to have the budget adopted. The same morning, his Minister of the Economy Antoine Armand said he was ready to “concessions” to avoid a “storm” to France.
At the same time, Michel Barnier confirmed that contribution reductions for companies would not be reduced to 2.25 minimum wage in the 2025 Social Security budget. The result of the vote of parliamentarians in the joint committee on Wednesday evening reducing the effort required of companies in terms of social contributions. While the initial plan planned to eliminate 4 billion euros in contribution reductions, this amount was reduced to 1.6 billion. So there is “an effort of 2.4 billion euros ultimately which will be returned or preserved for companies in terms of social charges, calculated the Prime Minister. This is the agreement that was made with parliamentarians and with the Senate.”
“Red lines remain” for the RN
Despite the Prime Minister's concessions on electricity, State medical aid and reductions in business charges, Marine Le Pen assured in an interview with Monde this Thursday that Michel Barnier had “until Monday” to respond to “red lines” of the National Gathering on the budgetary texts for 2025 and thus avoid censorship. “There are still difficulties”, added the head of the RN deputies. Among his demands still unmet in his eyes: the revaluation of the pensions of all retirees on January 1, the cancellation of the drug reimbursements initially planned, and details on the way in which the executive intends to financially compensate for the concessions announced Thursday.
A few hours earlier, Jordan Bardella himself estimated that Michel Barnier's decline on electricity taxes constituted “a victory” for the sound left, but added: “red lines remain”, particularly on the reimbursement of medicines. “We need a moratorium on any new creation or increase in taxes and fees,” had affirmed the president of the RN on X, also pleading for the reindexation of pensions “from January 1” or even “a turn of the migratory screw”. On the other side of the chessboard, the measure is also well received. “It’s rather something that goes in the right direction,” estimated on LCP Arthur Delaporte, who however deplores that Michel Barnier adopted it because he “seeks to kowtow to Marine Le Pen”.
3.4 billion to find
What was “initially planned” for the February 2025 invoices was in reality a reduction in regulated electricity sales tariffs (TRVE) from 10% to 15%. In any case, this was the promise made by Bruno Le Maire and the previous government in June 2024. But Michel Barnier, returning to this measure to balance his next budget, saw in this revision of the February 2025 prices a source of additional revenue. which would not result in an increase in prices for the consumer but… a lesser drop than expected. The Prime Minister therefore included in the 2025 finance bill an article 7 which “adapts the normal excise rates outside the tariff shield in order to guarantee the consumer a 9% reduction in the regulated sales rate in 2025 from February 1”, postponing the exact calculation of the amount of the internal tax on final electricity consumption (TICFE) until the end of December 2024.
When the State implemented the tariff shield in 2022, it moved the cursor of this tax. From 32.44 euros per MWh, it rose to 1 euro for individuals on February 1, 2022. It was gradually readjusted as market prices calmed down. From 1 to 21 euros from February 1, 2024, then 22.50 euros a few months later. The latter should ultimately rise to €29.98/MWh, inflation included, Matignon said on Thursday evening. This is less than the approximately 34 euros planned in the initial draft budget. When it was created in 2004, it was only 4.50 euros.
While Bercy was studying the possibility of increasing it to 50 euros per MWh, the affair had raised eyebrows in both the Assembly and the Senate. Amendments to delete article 7 were voted on by the NFP and the RN in the Assembly on October 25, then the provision was also rejected by the Senate. Even before the joint committee meets, Michel Barnier definitively buries his increase in the TICFE. We will therefore have to find elsewhere the 3.4 billion in revenue that this article 7 planned to generate.
Updated at 7:20 p.m. with details from Matignon on the new tax level; 8:10 p.m., with the reaction of Marine Le Pen
