With the half-yearly closing having passed, it is time to take stock for Bitcoin. A very positive assessment, since the performances are excellent for this first part of the year 2024 with new historical highs at stake. Can this good momentum be continued for the rest of the year on BTC?
It is Monday, July 1, 2024, and the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around $63,000.
The week starts with an ecosystem that breathes happily. The half-yearly close is behind us, leaving a first part of 2024 marked by an all-time high for Bitcoin. It is also the highest half-yearly close for BTC, which has made around 50% gains since last January.
The macroeconomic news is good, inflation is down with a US economy that is weakening but not breaking. Enough to open up interesting prospects for risky assets in an election year in the United States that could see the Republican camp regain the reins of power.
Mapping the performance of the crypto ecosystem over the last week
We are now fully into the summer period, which traditionally sees market professionals take well-deserved vacations. This period tends to see lower engagement in the traditional market, which should impact “institutional” flows into Bitcoin spot ETFs.
The seasonality of the crypto ecosystem, on the contrary, statistically suggests a favorable framework for the month of July with an upward trend, the complete opposite of the months of August and September. The latter being the month of the year with the highest probability of a drop.
In this context, can Bitcoin achieve a summer rally?
Ride the bull run by surrounding yourself with experts! Join us now on Cryptoast Research
Cryptoast Research: Don’t Spoil This Bull Run, Surround Yourself With Experts
Are Bitcoin Options Leading the Way?
| Pairs with Bitcoin | 24 hours | 7 days | 1 month |
| Bitcoin / USDT | +2,80 % | +1,30 % | -6,60 % |
| ETH / Bitcoin | -0,10 % | +2,00 % | -1,40 % |
When we discuss market participant bias, the contrarian side of markets is often discussed. Indeed, if a majority of investors foresee a trend, it is often considered that the market will act in the opposite direction.
In this category of indicators we can observe open options on derivatives markets. These offer good visibility of the pain with a ” max pain price » revealing the most penalizing price zone for market players.
So for the July expiration which has $2.77 billion in open interest, the pain reference price is at $65,000. So we are currently below that reference price. This benchmark level could tend to suck up price action and act as a catalyst especially near the monthly close.
Overview of open options contracts for BTC
Buy crypto on eToro
Investing in cryptocurrencies is offered by eToro (Europe) Ltd as a PSAN registered with the AMF. Investing in crypto assets is highly volatile. There is no consumer protection. Investing is risky (learn more)
BTC, opposite terminal objective?
June manages to maintain the range zone above $60,000 by carrying out a conclusive test on the 7-month moving average. The latter is now above the lower limit of the range. The challenge for the month of July will be to ensure a continuation of price action above this moving average to avoid a deterioration of the long-term bullish impulsive phase.
How to easily buy Bitcoin (BTC) in 2024?
Bitcoin price chart monthly
Weekly, Price action marks absorption of liquidity below the lower limit of the range followed by a convincing rebound. Bollinger Bands Continue to Closeadding credence to the range which is strengthened.
Last week’s Japanese candlestick shows a very thin body and a long wick from $58,000. Both camps will look to make their mark on this week’s weekly close:
- Bulls : the objective for the bulls will be to close above the equilibrium confluence, SMA7W and SMA20W in search of the upper limit of the range at $72,000;
- Bear : They will look to break through last week’s low while achieving a close below the range. This is a scenario that would open the possibility of a decline towards the SMA50W at $47,000.
Any break of the range cannot be excluded, either upwards or downwards, nevertheless The most likely scenario would be to remain in this neutral zone for several weeks.
Bitcoin Price Chart Weekly
On a daily basis, the reaction on the support zone is good. The downward flow is currently interrupted, but it could be relaunched upon contact with the 20-day moving average. This is the major daily objective for the bullish camp: to succeed in establishing itself above the 20-day average.
If the bears do not regain control quickly by restarting the bearish flow by crossing the SMA7D, we could see a phase of lateral compression between the 7 and 20 day moving averages in the coming days before a decision is made.
Bitcoin price chart in daily data
Want to discover more technical analysis on Bitcoin or altcoins? Join our premium group Cryptoast Research where we share altcoin analysis charts every week!
Cryptoast Research: Don’t Spoil This Bull Run, Surround Yourself With Experts
In summary, Bitcoin rebounded significantly in favor of support on the 7-month average guaranteeing the long-term bullish momentum. Liquidity has been absorbed below the lower limit of the range with a reconquest of the latter. The next objective is statistically the equilibrium of the range around 66,000 dollars. Its reconquest would lead the price action towards the upper limit at $72,000.
So, do you think BTC can revisit the top of the range? Please feel free to give us your opinion in the comments.
Have a great day and we’ll see you next week for another Bitcoin analysis.
Sources : TradingView, Coinglass, Glassnode
Newsletter
Receive a crypto news recap every Monday by email
What you need to know about affiliate links. This page may feature investment-related assets, products, or services. Some links in this article may be affiliate links. This means that if you purchase a product or sign up for a site from this article, our partner pays us a commission. This allows us to continue to provide you with original and useful content. There is no impact on you and you can even get a bonus for using our links.
Investing in cryptocurrencies is risky. Cryptoast is not responsible for the quality of the products or services presented on this page and could not be held responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused following the use of a good or service highlighted in this article. Investments related to crypto-assets are risky by nature, readers must do their own research before taking any action and only invest within the limits of their financial capacities. This article does not constitute investment advice.
AMF recommendations. There is no guaranteed high return, a product with a high return potential implies a high risk. This risk-taking must be in line with your project, your investment horizon and your ability to lose part of these savings. Do not invest if you are not prepared to lose all or part of your capital.
To go further, read our Financial Situation, Media Transparency and Legal Notices pages.
As an analyst at Cryptoast Research for several years, I conduct in-depth monitoring of the crypto market to analyze upcoming narratives while keeping an eye on the financial markets.
Emmanuel Lazaro
30 articles
