- Futures indicate a significantly stronger opening in the European session
- Euro gains after exit poll results from first round of French legislative elections
- Investors will focus today on the CPI from Germany and the PMI reports
Market sentiment appears to be improving at the start of the week, largely linked to the results of the first round of the French elections. At this stage, it appears that after the second round, none of the political parties/alliances will achieve an absolute majority in parliament, reducing fears of another political deadlock in France. The New Popular Front has called for alliances ahead of Sunday’s second round of voting to block Le Pen’s far-right party from winning an absolute majority and forming a government.
In addition to the reactions to the elections (especially in the banking sector), investors’ attention will also be on the CPI from Germany and the final PMI data for June. A little later, Christine Lagarde will give her speech on the ECB’s monetary policy.
The most important macroeconomic readings of the day:
All day – Bank holiday in Canada
08:30 – Switzerland, retail sales data for May. Forecast: +2.5% YoY. Previous: +2.7% YoY.
09:00 – Poland, manufacturing PMI data for June. Forecast: 44.9. Previous: 45.0.
09:50 – France, manufacturing PMI data for June. Forecast: 45.3. Previous: 46.4.
09:55 – Germany, manufacturing PMI data for June. Forecast: 43.4. Previous: 45.4.
10:00 a.m. – Euro zone, manufacturing PMI data for June. Forecast: 45.6. Previous: 47.3.
10:30 a.m. – United Kingdom, manufacturing PMI data for June. Forecast: 51.4. Previous: 51.2.
14:00 – Germany, CPI data for June. Forecast: +2.3% YoY. Previous: +2.4% YoY.
3:45 p.m. – USA, manufacturing PMI data for June. Forecast: 51.7. Previous: 51.3.
4:00 p.m. – USA, ISM manufacturing PMI data for June. Forecast: 49.1. Previous: 48.7.
9:00 p.m. – Lagarde’s speech in Sintra.
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