The hardest part is finding the material. When I spend my late nights writing columns or filming videos, the most complicated thing is often knowing what we are going to talk about. And right away, it’s not easy to renew yourself. Since Trump was elected, we are in full euphoria and we have the impression that the only thing we have to do is buy Cryptos, Tesla, banks and IWM. The same theories are repeated day after day and nothing changes. The US markets are STILL at their all-time high and even the European markets which will contribute because of customs duties are still trying to follow suit. It touches on psychology.
The Audio of November 12, 2024
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Shall we renew?
In this context, it is not easy to renew oneself. Yesterday the bond market was closed and volumes were reduced due to Veterans Day. But it didn’t matter, we just took the same ones and started again. Buyers are simply replicating what they did last Wednesday, then last Thursday and finally; last Friday. We wonder at what point we are going to say to ourselves “that we must not push Grandma into the nettles” and that when companies like Coinbase rise by 90% in 5 days under the pretext that Crypto trading is going to increase, can that happen? even seeming a bit far-fetched. And I’m not even talking about Tesla which took 43% in 4 days, carefully pulverizing the slightest short on the market. There is no longer any logic and seeing what is happening, the speakers are saying that Trump is the Messiah descended on Earth and that he will solve absolutely all the economic problems that have emerged over the last 4 years. and all between January 20 and the beginning of spring. That way the 4 years that will remain behind will only be bull market and new historical records.
Yesterday the S&P500 finished above 6,000 for the first time in history. But beyond this new record, the American index recorded its fiftieth “historic high” of the year. And there are 7 weeks left until the end of the calendar year. This also means that the S&P 500 has reached TRIPLE its average number of all-time highs in a year. These figures are simply staggering, but we must not forget that trees do not reach the sky and that the last time we reached this kind of record – “more than 50 new highs in one year” – the S&P500 immediately questioned with a year of Bear Market and it was 2022.
The bad omen bird
In 2021 – a crazy year during which everyone spent wildly, the S&P had reached more than 70 all-time highs. In the process, the following year entered the Bear Market and technology stocks lost more than 50%. Worse, all of the 2021 gains were wiped out that year – as Claude François said – another figure to remember, in 2017 the market jumped 30% and reached 60 times the “highest of all time”. At the end of December 2018 – 12 months later, the S&P500 will have lost 20% of its value.
So I’m not painting the devil on the wall, or rather the bear on the wall and I’m very happy that Trump can start his revolution and transform Biden’s presidency into a venereal disease that everyone will prefer to forget in history books. But if we are anticipating all the positive things in the 8 days after his election, what will we have left next year? Well, the good news is that “for now”, we are able to ride on wind for months and months and be perfectly content with it. Remember the month of January: we were absolutely convinced that rates were going to fall 8 times during the year, starting in March. It didn’t happen like that AT ALL, but we still continued to climb in the hope of seeing at least ONE DROP IN 2024. And we’ve already had two!!! We might as well tell you that the DELIRIOUS OPTIMIST side has become our “new normal”.
Besides, take a look at these figures:
1. Tesla increased its market cap by $450 billion in 1 month
2. Bitcoin has gained $1 trillion in the last 12 months (and at the rate it’s rising, it should be twice as much in three months)
3. The S&P 500 has gained $15 trillion over the past 13 months. (We speak in market cap)
4. Gold is up 25% year to date. I don’t know how many billions that is, but a lot nonetheless
5. Nvidia gained 2,400 billion in market cap over 12 months
6. The Magnificent 7 have added $9 trillion in the last 4 years.
And now with the advent of the Messiah Donald Trump, whom everyone hated just a week ago and whom everyone made fun of, thinking he was stupid, even stupid, we are being told that the market will not will never stop rising again. It is still incredible to see the long list of talents that Wall Street is pinning on his chest when everyone considered him a clown just 6 months ago. It remains to be seen how long the magical situation of Trump’s arrival on Earth will work. If we look at the ability we had to wait for the rate cut, it could last a while. Perhaps until we are told the real cost of his strategy for rebuilding America.
La Crypto-solution
Either way, we’re not going to piss into the wind; the markets are in full delirium and if there is one delirium that is stronger than the others, it is Crypto. This morning Bitcoin is close to $90,000 and this idiot seems not even able to wait for Christmas to go directly to $100,000. Everyone is getting excited about the subject, we are talking about the Federal Reserve coming with staggering amounts, we are talking about Microstrategy which still has to buy 42 billion worth of Bitcoin – Microstrategy which took 25% JUST ON YESTERDAY’S SESSION and which is up 200% since September 9. Not September 9, 2023 – no, just the one from 2 months ago.
And it’s not just Bitcoin, everything else is taking off too. We’re back in the Bull Run from a few years ago. Except this time, we are assisted by the President of the United States. However, in the middle of this heavenly picture, Asian markets seem to want to try to come back to earth. Currently, the Nikkei is down 0.85%, the Hang Seng is down 2% and China is dropping 0.09%. We are still talking about the Chinese stimulus which is insufficient and the US inflation figures which will arrive tomorrow. Yes, because if there’s one thing we’ll have to watch over the next 12 months, it’s inflation. The Asians seem to have understood this well and while the Ricans are delirious and counting their records, Asia is saying that what Trump is planning could well put Powell in PLS if all this reignites the fire under the saucepan of the inflation. Oil is at $67.80 because Trump is going to drill like crazy. Gold is at $2,619 because no one wants a safe haven there right away, because “to protect yourself from what? Everything is going so well! » and Bitcoin… Well, Bitcoin is exploding, as usual… Here we are at $88,600, but by Friday the $100,000 should be folded, that will give us things to talk about this weekend end.
In short, everything goes up (even inflation???)
In summary, you will have understood; for the moment nothing can stop us and the concept of rationality is a concept from another world. There is even Ed Yardeni who declared that the “animal spirit” of the market was back and that the S&P500 would go to 10,000 before the end of the decade. He just forgot that Trump will leave office in 2029 and that might not be enough to reach 10,000!!! In any case, the market is above ground and for once it’s not the Magnificent Seven who are doing the job. Well, not all. For those who have Apple, Microsoft or even Meta, it’s even a rally that makes you grimace because the frustration is so great. No, the drivers of the increase are everything that should be favored by the Trump Trade and that’s it. Goldman Sachs took $100 in 4 days, SOFI took 40% over the same period, we can wonder what these financiers are going to do that is so exceptional over the next 4 years, obviously it’s going to be huge.
For the rest, there are the titles which stick to reality and which are not touched by Donald’s magic and in this very specific case, we can cite Abbvie – the manufacturer of Botox – which supposedly has problems with a drug in testing that doesn’t work as well as expected. A drug for schizophrenia. On the news published by the Wall Street Journal, the stock fell 12%. But rest assured, Botox still sells quite well considering the faces of the Hollywood stars who supported Kamala Harris. In other good news, Deutsche Bank fired 100 bankers to lower costs. Just when the banking business was going to get easy with Trump. And then, while everyone is scrutinizing the interventions of the Trump clan, just to see who will do what in the next government and to find out if Musk becomes boss of the CIA or the FBI, we will not forget to note that the sector of semiconductors is at half mast and that it is still supposed to be a leading indicator of market performance. It must also be said that Taiwan Semi’s got a slap on the wrist from the nice American cop for selling equipment that works to China. As for when Trump will walk on water this weekend, that’s not yet very clear. On the other hand, he is expected to bring peace to the world by next Tuesday and Putin is expected to be invited to Trump’s takeover in January.
The present moment
For the moment, we are waiting for the ZEW in Europe and Germany, as well as the CPI in Germany as well. So many good economic surprises. Currently, futures are down 0.09%, but no one cares, they are too busy watching Bitcoin get closer to $100,000.
As far as I am concerned, it remains for me to wish you a very beautiful day in the wonderful country where the world stock markets can no longer fall, even those which will be hit with sick customs tariffs in the head in two months… See you again tomorrow for the future, hoping that we can turn away a bit from the TRUMP MIRACLE and everything that goes with it.
Have a nice day everyone!
Thomas Veillet
Investir.ch
« If you find a stock with little or no institutional ownership, you’ve found a potential winner. Find a company that no analyst has ever visited, or that no analyst would admit to knowing about, and you’ve got a double winner. When I talk to a company that tells me the last analyst showed up three years ago, I can hardly contain my enthusiasm. It frequently happens with banks, savings-and-loans, and insurance companies, since there are thousands of these and Wall Street only keeps up with fifty to one hundred »
Peter Lynch
