Going against the grain. A Frenchman emerges as the big winner from bets on the American presidential election made on the Polymarket site. After the success of his colossal bets on the victory of Donald Trump to the tune of several million euros, he could make nearly 50 million dollars in profits (around 46 million euros), details the Wall Street Journal this Wednesday 6 november.
In a few weeks, the man who calls himself Théo has bet no less than 30 million dollars (28 million euros) on a victory for Donald Trump. All while spreading his money over several questions: “Will Trump win the presidential election? “, “Will Trump win the popular vote? » or “Will Trump win the election in Pennsylvania?” “.
The man is a former trader, who opened several accounts with handles such as “Fredi9999”, “Theo4”, “PrincessCaro” and “Michie”, reports the Wall Street Journal. To maintain his anonymity, he calls himself as one of his betting accounts. The man, whose age is unknown, communicated by email on numerous occasions with journalists from the American economic daily. He describes himself to them as a “rich Frenchman”, with experience as a trader in several banks over the course of his career.
In his writings, he details that he began applying his mathematical know-how to the analysis of American polls over the summer. He came to the conclusion that support for Kamala Harris was overestimated, and that he therefore had every interest in banking on her opponent. “His bet was essentially a bet against the accuracy of polling data,” continues the WSJ.
Among the events he saw coming were Donald Trump's victory in the popular vote, the Republican raid in the “Blue Wall” states, and above all, the former president's success in the “swing states.” Theo had predicted that six of the seven key states would fall into the hands of the businessman, he ended up winning everywhere. However, he in no way claims to adhere to the ideas of the 47th President of the United States: “My goal is just to make money,” he declared in a Zoom with the daily last week.
