flash markets edram
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US growth showed resilience in the third quarter, but US employment data remains contradictory.
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In the euro zone, the surprises were positive with growth above expectations, particularly in France.
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The Japanese elections last weekend did not allow the government in place to obtain a majority, thus reinforcing political uncertainty.
Last week before the American elections which still remain undecided even if investors are leaning towards a victory for D. Trump. There were numerous economic statistics, including data on American employment, which were always contradictory. Job openings were well below forecasts while ADP figures show job creation above expectations and revised upwards from the previous month. The other statistics instead showed a resilient American economy with an increase in consumer confidence, Dallas leading indicators up in both services and manufacturing and home sales on the rise. Finally, economic growth figures for the third quarter were published in the United States and Europe. In the United States, annualized growth was +2.8%, driven upwards by household consumption and downwards by negative net exports. This also reflects the
vigor of consumption with more imports than exports. In the euro zone, the surprises were positive with growth above expectations in France thanks to the Olympic Games effect. Spain continues its momentum, with GDP growing by 0.8% over the quarter. German growth was positive but revised downwards over the previous quarter. It is above all the inflation figures which surprised on the rise in Germany, with a price increase of 0.4% over the month of October compared to 0.2% expected and which creates uncertainty over the evolution of prices. rate.
In terms of results publications, the aggregate data is quite good with positive surprises both in Europe and the United States but disappointments in some large companies weighed on the markets.
Finally, in the United Kingdom, the new government presented its budget with significant tax increases but also spending increases, half financed by increased borrowing, which pushed rates up.
This environment of pre-election uncertainty as well as the prolonged rise in government borrowing rates, with good economic statistics and publications on inflation in the euro zone, have weighed on the performance of stocks in recent days. . In addition, the Japanese elections last weekend did not allow the government in place to obtain a majority, and the strengthening of political uncertainty thus leads us to return to a neutral position on Japanese stocks.
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