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According to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook report, global commodity prices in 2025 are expected to fall to their lowest level in five years, amid an oil glut so large it will likely limit the effects on price of a wider conflict in the Middle East.
“Nevertheless, overall commodity prices will remain 30% higher than in the five years before the COVID-19 pandemic,” the same report said.
He added that next year, global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by an average of 1.2 million barrels per day, a figure that has only been surpassed twice before, during containment measures. linked to the 2020 pandemic and the collapse of prices in 1998.
“This new supply glut partly reflects a major shift in China, where oil demand has virtually stagnated since 2023 due to a slowdown in industrial production and increased sales of electric vehicles and trucks running on liquefied natural gas. Additionally, several countries that are not part of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) or its allies (OPEC+) are expected to increase production. OPEC+ itself maintains significant reserves – 7 million barrels per day – almost double the level observed in 2019, on the eve of the pandemic,” explains the World Bank report.
Estimates for the period between 2024 and 2026 show that global commodity prices are expected to fall by almost 10%. Food prices are expected to fall by 9% this year and a further 4% in 2025 before stabilizing, but they will remain almost 25% above their average level over the period 2015-2019. For energy prices, forecasts indicate a decline of 6% in 2025 and then another 2% the following year.
“If this double reduction should allow central banks to more easily control inflation, an escalation of armed conflicts risks compromising this effort by disrupting the supply of energy and driving up its prices as well as those of foodstuffs”, reads -on in a report from the World Bank.
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