Confusing result of a Harris poll carried out for the British newspaper The Guardian : no less than 56% of Americans believe that their country is in recession. However, the unemployment rate in this same country does not exceed 4% and the gross domestic product has been growing uninterrupted since the declines of the first two quarters of 2022. What is more, wages have increased by 4.5% in 2023, growth above the rate of inflation.
According to this poll, Americans are particularly concerned about the cost of living and inflation. We can’t really blame them. But we must also admit that many of them are poorly informed: 49% think that the S&P 500 stock index is down for the year, while it increased by around 24% in 2023 and by more than 12% this year; 49% believe unemployment has reached its highest level in 50 years, while the unemployment rate is below 4%, its lowest level in almost 50 years.
Republicans are obviously the most numerous to say that everything is bad and to blame Joe Biden. But the independents and the Democrats do not escape what the columnist of New York Times Paul Krugman and other economists call the “vibecession”a phenomenon that could contribute to Biden’s defeat in November.
“For now,” Krugman writes in today’s column, “let’s just say that while negative perceptions of the economy are clearly a major problem for President Biden, it is a problem of a special kind. Indeed, the economy is not bad – in fact it is doing remarkably well. Additionally, most Americans (but not all, of course) feel pretty good about their personal finances. [selon des études plus approfondies que le sondage du Guardian]. Yet the feeling that the economy is doing badly is pervasive, and it is this feeling – not economic reality, or even personal experience – that is hurting Mr. Biden’s campaign. »
It should be noted that Democratic strategists like David Axelrod believe that Biden should empathize with Americans who think the economy is bad rather than trying to convince them otherwise. And that’s why Krugman admits to feeling like he’s banging his head against a wall while writing his column for the day. Is it him or the voters who have lost their minds?
(Photo Getty Images)
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