Newly elected, the MEPs confronted each other, at the start of the week, in Strasbourg, on the fate of the automobile industry which employs more than 14 million workers on the Old Continent. Hot topic. It is up to them, in fact, to arbitrate between ecology and economy, constraints as sensitive as each other. Under the cover of the Green Deal, Europe wants, as we know, to ban the marketing of thermal cars in the 27 Member States in 2035. The continental market represents around 15% of a global total of some 90/95 million cars per year. year. Its manufacturers are the best thermal specialists. If they no longer invest and lose control, they will give pride of place to Asians and Chinese. Heartbreaking. Beware, then, of disillusionment, factory closures and job cuts.
Manufacturers are asking for time
The second blade that threatens them does not wait. Our large groups are, in fact, required by Brussels to reduce their average emissions per car from 116 to 95 grams/km next year. A tough technical and financial challenge. They are in no way contesting the fight against global warming but they are calling for industrial time and consistency. To be in regulatory compliance, they would need to be able to sell as many zero-emission cars as possible if they want to avoid fines that could go, all brands combined, up to 15 billion euros! At Citroën, this would require selling a quarter of all-electric models. Renault and Stellantis alone would face two billion penalties if nothing changes. Panic on board.
“For lack of flexibility, the industry is in danger,” warns Luca de Meo, boss of Renault who is leading a crusade in Brussels. If only the market lived up to expectations! Alas, no. Less than 14% of the total, electric sales are falling from one year to the next. Several reasons for this. First of all, the prices, 35 to 50% higher than thermals. In Germany and Sweden, the market immediately collapsed with the end of public purchasing bonuses. The decline is contained in France where bonuses have only been reduced. What’s next? Bonus down, penalty up, “social leasing” suspended until 2025: the future is no longer what it used to be! Let’s first look at Michel Barnier’s budgetary decisions.
The glass ceiling of electricity
Although the milestone of 100,000 charging stations has been largely exceeded and the average range of action is increasing, the electric automobile also comes up against a sort of socio-cultural glass ceiling. Having fallen to less than 10% in France, diesel is falling out of the landscape while hybrid engines are a hit, with Renault ahead of Toyota in France. Self-recharging, 48 volts or rechargeable, the hybridization of the thermal fleet reduces emissions but is not enough.
With electrification imposed in haste by politicians after dieselgate – the scandal of emissions fraud at Volkswagen – “Brussels has given Asia the keys to European industry”, thunders Carlos Tavares, boss of Stellantis . Kings of the battery, the Chinese did not expect so much. BYD, At less than 3% of the market in 18 Western European countries, we would say that there is nothing to worry about. Not yet.
But the precedent of photovoltaic panels gives pause. And the Chinese are organizing themselves to build factories, obviously in the east of the Continent, where it is cheaper, and to get around the customs barriers in Brussels which displease Volkswagen, Audi, Mercedes and BMW, worried about retaliation from Xi Jinping against their large displacement cars sold in China.
Reduce prices and costs
Faced with the great upheaval in electricity which requires reviewing factories, production models, range strategies, marketing and distribution, Europeans have woken up. The Peugeot E-208 is the French market leader. Trendy city cars from Renault, Citroën and Volkswagen are arriving at the Paris Motor Show. More affordable. Well designed, even cute like the new R5 E-Tech or the E-C3. Reduce prices. Reduce costs by 30% to compete and survive. Essential when Germany is in crisis and mega battery factory projects are abandoned. Our market is hovering around 1.75 million registrations. A symbol of resistance, the Sandero city car, a 3-cylinder thermal car, was the best-selling model in Europe last month. The essentials at the best price: a Dacia recipe to think about.
