Approaching the 80th anniversary of the Liberation, the question of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine still seems highly uncertain. On May 3, Volodymyr Zelensky said he refused to “play” with the short truces proposed by Vladimir Putin. Three days earlier, the Russian president spoke of a three -day break from May 8, on the occasion of the celebrations planned in Moscow. “It is impossible to agree on something in three, five or seven days. Let’s be honest. It is a theatrical performance on his part,” replied his Ukrainian counterpart. In kyiv, there are hardly any illusions. “The last time the Russians proposed this was at Easter, but they never stopped the strikes, points to Yaroslav Kalinin, recruitment chief in the K-2 unit of the Ukrainian armed forces. And they continued to kill many civilians.” In just thirty hours, kyiv had identified no less than 3,000 truce violations …
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More than three years after the start of the conflict, Ukraine does not intend to lower the guard. And always tries to attract new recruits to fight in its armed forces exhausted by fighting. A crucial challenge to continue to resist Moscow who, on the ground, tirelessly continues his offensives. But finding new blood is not an easy task. In February, the Ministry of Defense launched a recruitment campaign to encourage young people aged 18 to 24 to serve under the flags for a year, against a bonus of 24,000 dollars and a monthly salary of 2,900 dollars (more than five times the average salary in Ukraine) in addition to other benefits. Two months later, the result was more than disappointing: less than 500 contracts were signed, the military councilor of the Ukrainian presidency, Pavlo Palisa told Reuters.
Innovative solutions
“It was not the best idea, admits Vladyslav Greziev, a former Ukrainian soldier now responsible for Lobby X, the largest online recruitment platform in Ukraine. This campaign has focused on earning money, but it is not the best lever to encourage people to engage in the army.” On the platform he has founded, the 34 -year -old entrepreneur offers an innovative solution, by publishing job offers to be filled in the various brigades in the country, to which potential candidates can then apply. An approach inspired by the civilian which constitutes a means for aspiring combatants to choose their future assignment (if they succeed in the selection process), and the role they will be led to play.
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The solution to attract more volunteers? “The trend is upwards and we see more candidates every month, resumes Greziev, whose company signed a cooperation agreement with the Ministry of Defense in 2023. People want above all to be sure of being able to join a unit with the best quality standards and whose commander is a professional who is concerned about the life of his soldiers. If they see that one of them can offer them, then there is no difficulty. According to Lobby X data, this uncertainty about the profile of the future commander is in fact the first reason behind the reluctance of some to engage (58 %), faced with the fear of dying or being injured in combat (56 %).
“Some commanders are still deeply permeated by the former Soviet model and their competence is strongly questioned, notes Glen Grant, analyst at the Baltic Security Foundation, who advised Ukraine on its military reform. It is today the main obstacle to recruitments.” Not all units are housed in the same brand. Within the 20th independent regiment of K-2 drone systems, commanded by Kyrylo Vers, considered in Ukraine as a war hero, even under requests. Last December the unit launched a recruitment campaign for which it would have collected “more than 13,000 applications”, according to its recruitment chief, Yaroslav Kalinin to date. Of this total, almost half would have reached through Lobby X, adds the manager.
Demographic problem
The extent of the Ukrainian army needs in new fighters, after three years of war, remains confidential. In a rare admission of the number of losses suffered since the start of the conflict, Volodymyr Zelensky had mentioned more than 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers who died in combat last February, and 380,000 injured. Beyond the need to fill these losses, the question of the succession of soldiers also arises, part of which has been engaged on the front since the start of the conflict. “Many soldiers are very tired, abounds Glen Grant. We must recruit and train more to be able to replace them, especially as a part of them is starting to be elderly.” Ukraine has never published information on the average age of its troops, but it is generally estimated at around 43 years.
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If Ukraine lowered in April 2024 the age of mobilization from 27 to 25 years old, it has so far refused to reduce it to 18 years – as some of its international partners, Washington in mind, called to do it. “This age group is less numerous than that of the forties, notes Vladyslav Greziev. Its mobilization potential is therefore much lower.” According to the Ukrainian age pyramid, the generation of men aged 18-25 represents only 1.5 million people, against 2.9 million for 35-43 year olds and 2.4 for 44-52 year olds. In question, a spectacular fall in demography in the years 1990-2000 in the context of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the deep economic difficulties that had followed. The mobilization of this already small age group could therefore have serious consequences on the future of the country.
At this stage, kyiv still prefers to bet on their volunteer. In February, Volodymyr Zelensky had estimated the number of Ukrainian soldiers currently in service at 980,000. “The problem does not actually relate to the number of men available as on the use made of it, notes analyst Glen Grant. The army needs to review its organization to ensure that the resources it has are used where they are most useful, and in particular to combat stations.” Because it displeases Donald Trump, the end of the war still seems very uncertain at this stage. “We know full well that we cannot trust the Russians, points to Yaroslav Kalinin. Even if there is a ceasefire, we will have to prepare for the next attack, which will not fail to occur.” And for that, Ukraine will need fighters.
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