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– 3,300, 3,500, 3,700 dollars? How far can the Once d’Or go up this year?
It is a good vein that does not seem to run out. In 2024, gold was among the best investments of the year (just behind Bitcoin), with a 34% outbreak of its value. Record Record steering wheel, the Once d’Or – 31.1 grams – rose to a new Historic High point on Wednesday April 16 in 3 317,75 dollars l’once (In euros, the OCE tuned the 2,950 euros this Thursday, April 17). Or a progression of Over 25%in dollars, since January 1st. Or much better, for the time being, than investments affected by the Customs Rights Stock Exchange, such as S&P 500 (-9.8% since the start of the year), or Bitcoin (-17%).
In this very uncertain context, can the course of gold continue to climb, after an already record year in 2024? For Ignacio Sainz Iglesias, Deputy Managing Director at Veracash, “The world’s gold needs do not weaken, while the amount available is limited”. A differential between supply and demand which mechanically increases the price of precious metal. And this gold rush should not weaken until the end of the year, because three factors should continue to supply demand.
Gold remains a highly requested precious metal on the globe scale
First, purchases from central banks, “In particular on the side of emerging countries, which are thus trying to reduce their dependence on the US dollar, by replacing it with gold”explains Ignacio Sainz Iglesias. A strategy notably applied by China: “With less than 6% of its gold exchange reserves, China’s allowance remains relatively low compared to other major economic powers. It should therefore continue to buy gold in large quantities in the coming years ”details Nitesh Shah, head of raw materials and macroeconomic research at Wisdomtree, in its 2025 perspectives for gold.
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Then, the cycle of drop in guiding rates started by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the American Federal Reserve (Fed) should also boost gold demand. Indeed, when the rates drop, the remuneration of risk -free products (booklets, term accounts) decreases, which pushes savers to other investments considered without risk, such as gold. Finally, the maintenance of geopolitical tensions on the scale of the globe could also play in its favor. We are thinking in particular of the introduction of new customs tariffs by Donald Trump, who strengthen a climate of uncertainty favorable to an asset such as gold.
Furthermore, if customs duties became permanently higher, this “Should push prices to import and therefore generate inflation for the end consumer, [ce qui] risk of slowing growth, and strengthening the appeal of yellow metal ”noted the National Comptoir de l’Or, in its monthly report in January 2025. However, inflation is also conducive to yellow metal: when prices climb, gold indeed becomes a refuge value, because investors consider that its value will remain the same – even increase – with the years, while the value of their heritage, it decreases.
A new year to more than 30% increase?
Put on end to end, these factors lead to a relative consensus on a new progression of the gold price in 2025. But how far? 20 of the 26 analysts from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) – Association which delivers the official rating of gold – expected to see the course touch or exceed the 3 000 dollars l’once This year. A record finally broken in March. Also, analysts were forced to review their upward perspectives. For example, the UBS bank has enhanced its 2025 to 3,500 dollars perce, the National Comptoir de l’Or. The Goldman Sachs bank, for its part, has noted its end -of -year perspective (already revised in February) of 3,300 dollars in 3 700 dollars l’once, “If political uncertainty – especially concerning customs tariffs – remain strong”. A scenario that would make gold finish again the year with a performance no more than 30%, but 40% (+40,47%).
Placement: Will Trump’s customs duties are shaking the course of gold?
