The current situation is marked by a Historically strong Swiss franc Faced with the euro and, more recently, facing the dollar. This dynamic is explained by the solidity of the Swiss economy, the persistent loss of the euro zone and, on the dollar side, by the growing trade tensions fed by the policy of Donald Trump. In the Middle Long term, several economists agree that the franc retains solid fundamentals to continue its appreciation.
But at court termeof the Technical and institutional signals converge to suggest potential temporary decline Swiss motto in front of the euro.
Three key elements feed this hypothesis.
1. Reflux of long positions of institutional investors
Weekly data published by the CFTC (Commitment of Traders Report) show a significant increase in selling positions On the Swiss franc. Non -commercial actors – including hedge funds and institutional – had not been so negative on the CHF for years.
This repositioning is part of clear divergence With the progression of the franc on the Spot market: while the currency reaches heights, professional operators now rely on his decrease. Historically, such differences between the price and the speculative positions often precede a correction technique.
2. Asset managers downwards
Another significant signal: Asset International Managersgenerally more stable and anchored in a macroeconomic logic, also reduce their exhibition to the Swiss franc.
While the CHF has just crossed new heights against the euro, these actors increase their short positions. A posture which is partly explained by the recent evolution of Swiss monetary policy:
– the BNS lowered its key rate of 25 base points in Marchbringing him to 0.25 %
– l’inflation remains moderate (0.3 %)leaving a room for maneuver for new softens if the franc was too strong.
This double movement – increasing price and declining institutional positions – feeds the Possibility of a reversal in the coming weeks.
3. School indicator in the Surachat zone
A third alert signal comes from Market Mood Meteran indicator of feeling developed by the Forecaster platform. He measures excess optimism or pessimism on a motto.
Currently, this indicator classifies the Swiss franc in Extreme Surachat area. This means that the market is probably in a situation of euphoria or excessive tension, which, according to historical data, is often followed by a rapid correction.
Towards a short -term adjustment?
Taken in isolation, each of these indicators could be interpreted as market noise. But their simultaneous convergence – repositioning of institutional, turn of asset managers, and extreme level of feeling – forms a Complete and consistent configuration.
In an unstable geopolitical context, especially with the trade war relaunched by the United States, it becomes essential for actors exposed to exchange risk to anticipate these short -term movements.
Concrete solutions for cross -border workers and Swiss companies
It is with this in mind that the service offered by Changenligne.ch takes on its full meaning.
This specialized Swiss platform allows individuals cross -border workers like companies of :
– benefit from Competitive EUR/CHF exchange rate,
– Follow them market forecast
– and carry out their exchange operations at the right time.
In such an uncertain environment, optimizing the timing of its currency conversions can represent a substantial economy.
Whether you anticipate a new strengthening of the franc or that you simply want to secure a good rate, The Changenligne.ch platform offers a transparent, fast and accessible solution to manage your exchange needs effectively.
